{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5d370ad-bd7a-45a7-994b-5c98bc0631d1", "symbol": "WHF", "name": "Whitefield Industrials Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.825, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 19.149, "architecture_energy": 28.761, "architecture_maturity": 10.5, "architecture_confidence": 46.17, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.77, "rotation_up": 50.15, "upward_expansion": 36.82, "deceleration": 36.54, "rotation_down": 14.34, "downward_expansion": 42.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.883333, 4.807455, 4.762009, 4.800538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.02, "trend_reference": 4.88542, "distance_from_trend": 0.027547, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.999528, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004095, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.052712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007205, "excess_performance": -0.070911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027547, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007205, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.845208, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 334962, "relative_activity": 1.051856, "balance": 0.845208, "dry_up": 1.054503, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030538, "annualized_volatility": 0.127996, "from_high_reference": -0.105719, "from_low_reference": 0.115556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.88542, "fair_value_reference": 4.999528, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": -0.002557, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.065217, "worst_return": -0.060932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003336, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.009327, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.102767, "worst_return": -0.055085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009664, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125365, "worst_return": -0.070739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007906, 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"direction": -39.078596, "energy": 23.75402, "activity_lines": [ 4.702667, 4.676911, 4.72541, 4.812472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.85, "volume": 268358, "typical_volume": 326420.35, "trend": 4.928818, "fair_value": 4.991981, "relative_strength": -5.188844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.243124, "energy": 18.872577, "activity_lines": [ 4.763333, 4.708434, 4.730402, 4.806669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.76, "volume": 442698, "typical_volume": 311956.2, "trend": 4.910787, "fair_value": 4.993499, "relative_strength": -6.45684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.086046, "energy": 20.135418, "activity_lines": [ 4.772, 4.721478, 4.728179, 4.795778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.86, "volume": 297201, "typical_volume": 312304.8, "trend": 4.895437, "fair_value": 4.996001, "relative_strength": -6.398321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.369716, "energy": 13.717863, "activity_lines": [ 4.806667, 4.751691, 4.737124, 4.792501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.02, "volume": 334962, "typical_volume": 318448.4, "trend": 4.88542, "fair_value": 4.999528, "relative_strength": -6.052712, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.149161, "energy": 28.760529, "activity_lines": [ 4.883333, 4.807455, 4.762009, 4.800538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }