{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5d66a20-e24a-4ab9-95d1-37321a9d0ad5", "symbol": "ADBE", "name": "Adobe Systems Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.09, "architecture_energy": 16.924, "architecture_maturity": 31.976, "architecture_confidence": 63.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.4, "rotation_up": 42.84, "upward_expansion": 26.86, "deceleration": 40.9, "rotation_down": 12.44, "downward_expansion": 47.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 246.744, 233.886182, 234.58881, 238.812903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 265.21, "trend_reference": 248.263667, "distance_from_trend": 0.068259, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 424.317083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.716606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011812, "excess_performance": -0.199265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068259, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374972, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.985529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22235495, "relative_activity": 0.777161, "balance": 0.985529, "dry_up": 0.962306, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09826, "annualized_volatility": 0.490245, "from_high_reference": -0.284878, "from_low_reference": 0.394961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 248.263667, "fair_value_reference": 424.317083, "structural_low": 190.12, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.086641, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066077, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120131, "worst_return": -0.268529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.174288, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.115268, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.382644, "worst_return": -0.336235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.169481, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.093378, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.637048, "worst_return": 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223.536545, 233.416476, 244.452237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 223.64, "volume": 25683291, "typical_volume": 29956920.6, "trend": 261.561333, "fair_value": 431.409712, "relative_strength": -36.377064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.921423, "energy": 61.129611, "activity_lines": [ 213.307333, 221.864, 231.746476, 241.720129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 237.25, "volume": 28276063, "typical_volume": 29893401.35, "trend": 257.607667, "fair_value": 429.595737, "relative_strength": -28.68992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.168824, "energy": 34.508539, "activity_lines": [ 222.706, 223.158182, 231.53919, 240.151656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 225.11, "volume": 23628713, "typical_volume": 29842478.25, "trend": 253.318, "fair_value": 427.648558, "relative_strength": -30.322638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.571139, "energy": 20.62227, "activity_lines": [ 225.842667, 222.532182, 230.295524, 238.055032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 250.41, "volume": 35990633, "typical_volume": 29517821.1, "trend": 250.555, "fair_value": 425.876314, "relative_strength": -22.07009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.931198, "energy": 15.327236, "activity_lines": [ 235.416, 226.915091, 231.74, 237.867419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 265.21, "volume": 22235495, "typical_volume": 28611187.6, "trend": 248.263667, "fair_value": 424.317083, "relative_strength": -20.716606, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.08952, "energy": 16.923673, "activity_lines": [ 246.744, 233.886182, 234.58881, 238.812903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }