{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5d76915-f430-4353-9b07-032b40872661", "symbol": "002272", "name": "Sichuan Crun Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.107, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.442, "architecture_energy": 48.017, "architecture_maturity": 18.552, "architecture_confidence": 87.028, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.16, "rotation_up": 19.38, "upward_expansion": 25.76, "deceleration": 50.89, "rotation_down": 70.99, "downward_expansion": 48.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.401333, 17.921273, 19.107048, 19.05443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.78, "trend_reference": 18.635667, "distance_from_trend": -0.206897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.771674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.288192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004759, "excess_performance": -0.002641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08263, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372117, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.646402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172882, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.003366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136717156, "relative_activity": 0.585996, "balance": 1.003366, "dry_up": 0.730857, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222234, "annualized_volatility": 0.855287, "from_high_reference": -0.407853, "from_low_reference": 0.225539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.635667, "fair_value_reference": 10.771674, "structural_low": 12.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08291, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.120747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187301, "worst_return": 0.024222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061905, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084602, "worst_return": -0.243945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.092232, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.144596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136844, "worst_return": 0.047619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.234705, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.595845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097241, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103049, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.265107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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26.050686, "energy": 20.322691, "activity_lines": [ 21.33, 21.362364, 20.648524, 19.903291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.12, "volume": 197996390, "typical_volume": 255876839.0, "trend": 18.790333, "fair_value": 10.67423, "relative_strength": -12.308925, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.467085, "energy": 9.982844, "activity_lines": [ 19.121333, 20.239818, 20.180381, 19.668516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.18, "volume": 162565859, "typical_volume": 241759898.55, "trend": 18.688, "fair_value": 10.716905, "relative_strength": -22.361174, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.56563, "energy": 38.562071, "activity_lines": [ 16.671333, 18.830364, 19.554381, 19.306559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.78, "volume": 136717156, "typical_volume": 233307285.5, "trend": 18.635667, "fair_value": 10.771674, "relative_strength": -17.288192, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.441834, "energy": 48.016588, "activity_lines": [ 15.401333, 17.921273, 19.107048, 19.05443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }