{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5dad9a9-088f-4dca-956e-0dbf3422f18f", "symbol": "STZ", "name": "Constellation Brands Inc Class A", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.776, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.426, "architecture_energy": 56.502, "architecture_maturity": 16.27, "architecture_confidence": 90.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.65, "rotation_up": 15.87, "upward_expansion": 10.76, "deceleration": 42.37, "rotation_down": 64.67, "downward_expansion": 86.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.253716, 134.68526, 139.623264, 143.067342 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 135.76, "trend_reference": 147.305715, "distance_from_trend": -0.078379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 192.553233, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.192966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1682, "excess_performance": -0.293825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002549, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027278, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8445563, "relative_activity": 0.813907, "balance": 0.855429, "dry_up": 0.922753, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069363, "annualized_volatility": 0.320311, "from_high_reference": -0.191278, "from_low_reference": 0.088104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.305715, "fair_value_reference": 192.553233, "structural_low": 127.274533, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.013191, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.37037, "median_excess_return": -0.005726, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.117326, "worst_return": -0.177855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028733, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.013292, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.194858, "worst_return": -0.261363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012568, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.098109, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.078505, "worst_return": -0.274918, 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"volume": 10207358, "typical_volume": 10300621.3, "trend": 148.197751, "fair_value": 194.896543, "relative_strength": -17.430303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.833486, "energy": 65.362246, "activity_lines": [ 135.456252, 138.793848, 143.654278, 146.20285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.139798, "volume": 8429848, "typical_volume": 10321945.65, "trend": 147.917241, "fair_value": 194.08205, "relative_strength": -17.929533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.503657, "energy": 74.515825, "activity_lines": [ 132.66528, 136.68011, 141.983996, 144.973305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.23, "volume": 11217267, "typical_volume": 10498354.0, "trend": 147.615185, "fair_value": 193.301546, "relative_strength": -17.46156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.840372, "energy": 72.482039, "activity_lines": [ 131.040388, 135.004776, 140.495323, 143.832192 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.76, "volume": 8445563, "typical_volume": 10376570.3, "trend": 147.305715, "fair_value": 192.553233, "relative_strength": -16.192966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.426099, "energy": 56.501783, "activity_lines": [ 132.253716, 134.68526, 139.623264, 143.067342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }