{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5e455ba-9f5b-418d-a5fa-38c421a32846", "symbol": "3591", "name": "Wacoal Holdings Corp.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-04", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.688, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -48.172, "architecture_energy": 58.22, "architecture_maturity": 8.812, "architecture_confidence": 72.266, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.87, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 19.56, "deceleration": 43.49, "rotation_down": 69.59, "downward_expansion": 61.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 4249.866667, 4318.581818, 4385.714286, 4394.819542 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4128.0, "trend_reference": 4392.202856, "distance_from_trend": -0.060153, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4366.056221, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.723817, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045245, "excess_performance": -0.214248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.707581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 523500, "relative_activity": 1.074133, "balance": 0.707581, "dry_up": 1.064335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042598, "annualized_volatility": 0.248524, "from_high_reference": -0.292413, "from_low_reference": 0.059548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4392.202856, "fair_value_reference": 4366.056221, "structural_low": 3896.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015632, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105093, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.006027, "worst_return": -0.112916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.113439, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.109152, "worst_return": -0.117725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.12449, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.254713, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.102165, "worst_return": -0.146816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011128, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", 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-21.417041, "energy": 36.090798, "activity_lines": [ 4324.133333, 4366.309091, 4417.528571, 4412.623346 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 4128.0, "volume": 523500, "typical_volume": 487370.0, "trend": 4392.202856, "fair_value": 4366.056221, "relative_strength": -23.723817, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.172433, "energy": 58.219996, "activity_lines": [ 4249.866667, 4318.581818, 4385.714286, 4394.819542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }