{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5e4c83a-c087-496b-b442-959d264b2e30", "symbol": "PBRAN", "name": "Petr\u00f3leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.284, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.182, "architecture_energy": 44.19, "architecture_maturity": 32.69, "architecture_confidence": 71.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.12, "rotation_up": 35.22, "upward_expansion": 28.5, "deceleration": 72.78, "rotation_down": 38.49, "downward_expansion": 42.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 272.090002, 269.25637, 288.827775, 291.819929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 275.0, "trend_reference": 282.386927, "distance_from_trend": -0.026159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 243.378961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129925, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.593257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.335968, "excess_performance": 0.390635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075933, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.335968, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.037083, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028268, "annualized_volatility": 0.524, "from_high_reference": -0.207396, "from_low_reference": 0.338359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 282.386927, "fair_value_reference": 243.378961, "structural_low": 205.843262, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.014309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036988, "active": false }, { 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260.450012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 56.4, "trend": 275.471253, "fair_value": 241.793492, "relative_strength": 2.840315, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.614406, "energy": 76.319863, "activity_lines": [ 260.450012, 274.87813, 297.941527, 292.357312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 275.0, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 55.45, "trend": 277.776478, "fair_value": 242.321982, "relative_strength": 8.821765, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.963656, "energy": 74.400815, "activity_lines": [ 265.300008, 271.695887, 294.859815, 292.326908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 275.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 41.95, "trend": 280.081703, "fair_value": 242.850471, "relative_strength": 7.786261, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.19561, "energy": 54.319927, "activity_lines": [ 269.180005, 269.821967, 291.768161, 292.147781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 275.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.45, "trend": 282.386927, "fair_value": 243.378961, "relative_strength": 7.593257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.182144, "energy": 44.189838, "activity_lines": [ 272.090002, 269.25637, 288.827775, 291.819929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }