{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5e5b7b1-cad4-463f-b19d-c76788f5d239", "symbol": "AER", "name": "Aeeris Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.137, "architecture_energy": 88.025, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.309, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 8.62, "upward_expansion": 21.95, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 77.86, "downward_expansion": 95.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0542, 0.058618, 0.066614, 0.071037 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.055, "trend_reference": 0.0769, "distance_from_trend": -0.284785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.075955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.865159, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.388889, "excess_performance": -0.452595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.284785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.491228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.388889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.117912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35678, "relative_activity": 1.245934, "balance": 5.117912, "dry_up": 1.602911, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082517, "annualized_volatility": 0.647382, "from_high_reference": -0.45, "from_low_reference": 0.078431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0769, "fair_value_reference": 0.075955, "structural_low": 0.051, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.0125, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008716, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.017856, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.392857, "worst_return": -0.232877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059524, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067577, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.352113, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", 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72634.5, "trend": 0.0794, "fair_value": 0.077455, "relative_strength": -32.667201, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.784014, "energy": 95.343748, "activity_lines": [ 0.0646, 0.069618, 0.074476, 0.077351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.051, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52227.45, "trend": 0.078733, "fair_value": 0.077013, "relative_strength": -32.124157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.66687, "energy": 95.19381, "activity_lines": [ 0.059067, 0.065382, 0.071995, 0.075518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.055, "volume": 147923, "typical_volume": 57249.25, "trend": 0.0782, "fair_value": 0.07666, "relative_strength": -25.988231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.494069, "energy": 91.113477, "activity_lines": [ 0.056467, 0.062582, 0.070086, 0.073987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.055, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 37713.75, "trend": 0.077533, "fair_value": 0.076308, "relative_strength": -27.063974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.280775, "energy": 88.464329, "activity_lines": [ 0.054667, 0.060418, 0.068295, 0.07249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.055, "volume": 35678, "typical_volume": 28635.55, "trend": 0.0769, "fair_value": 0.075955, "relative_strength": -28.865159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.136811, "energy": 88.025451, "activity_lines": [ 0.0542, 0.058618, 0.066614, 0.071037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }