{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5ec0d37-e308-4af0-9d61-77aede4f863e", "symbol": "AAOI", "name": "Applied Opt", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.928, "architecture_energy": 30.649, "architecture_maturity": 17.674, "architecture_confidence": 48.371, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.22, "rotation_up": 17.07, "upward_expansion": 19.41, "deceleration": 54.76, "rotation_down": 59.03, "downward_expansion": 49.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.041333, 119.835091, 137.38581, 132.130645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 135.63, "trend_reference": 115.832, "distance_from_trend": 0.17092, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.980801, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.571015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 56.39606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.061625, "excess_performance": 1.874172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17092, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.414791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.571015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.01912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.563961, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.041213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.061625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85029086, "relative_activity": 1.46396, "balance": 0.440861, "dry_up": 0.942008, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.318321, "annualized_volatility": 1.23169, "from_high_reference": -0.419566, "from_low_reference": 6.331351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.832, "fair_value_reference": 37.980801, "structural_low": 41.12, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.144547, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.084632, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.300532, "worst_return": -0.489824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.300317, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.400531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235897, "worst_return": -0.401876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.224333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.225641, "worst_return": -0.009019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.489824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.199812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.15, "volume": 36913357, "typical_volume": 58031425.7, "trend": 110.621667, "fair_value": 36.656763, "relative_strength": 27.084618, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.384565, "energy": 29.645931, "activity_lines": [ 109.849333, 128.329091, 142.220524, 131.686602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.32, "volume": 50396002, "typical_volume": 57144912.35, "trend": 112.445667, "fair_value": 37.190801, "relative_strength": 17.114632, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.391328, "energy": 44.424651, "activity_lines": [ 102.681333, 119.534182, 137.830095, 130.634882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.63, "volume": 85029086, "typical_volume": 58081579.0, "trend": 115.832, "fair_value": 37.980801, "relative_strength": 56.39606, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.928449, "energy": 30.648547, "activity_lines": [ 112.041333, 119.835091, 137.38581, 132.130645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }