{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5edecb6-0bf6-4233-a568-54502fbdeb11", "symbol": "CAAS", "name": "China Automotive Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.183, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.944, "architecture_energy": 6.093, "architecture_maturity": 12.114, "architecture_confidence": 53.213, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.15, "rotation_up": 24.23, "upward_expansion": 19.71, "deceleration": 60.02, "rotation_down": 42.53, "downward_expansion": 35.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.421333, 4.428727, 4.460571, 4.435398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 4.431667, "distance_from_trend": -0.002633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.857915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.148228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01559, "excess_performance": -0.203044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027518, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012069, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01559, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66229, "relative_activity": 0.522215, "balance": 1.128267, "dry_up": 0.647943, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055026, "annualized_volatility": 0.199041, "from_high_reference": -0.141748, "from_low_reference": 0.136247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.431667, "fair_value_reference": 3.857915, "structural_low": 4.04, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003999, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.008381, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.199422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064051, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.436823, "worst_return": -0.34375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.156794, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060261, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.34264, "worst_return": -0.440928, "sufficient": true }, 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"fair_value": 3.856302, "relative_strength": -9.104769, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.734698, "energy": 14.848186, "activity_lines": [ 4.382667, 4.431636, 4.451476, 4.430753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.51, "volume": 156232, "typical_volume": 130250.2, "trend": 4.432333, "fair_value": 3.856914, "relative_strength": -6.043653, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.464976, "energy": 6.848641, "activity_lines": [ 4.419333, 4.437273, 4.460857, 4.436194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 66229, "typical_volume": 126823.3, "trend": 4.431667, "fair_value": 3.857915, "relative_strength": -12.148228, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.943582, "energy": 6.092806, "activity_lines": [ 4.421333, 4.428727, 4.460571, 4.435398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }