{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5f1a94a-ec12-40fe-acaf-859bcabbb13d", "symbol": "UCAP", "name": "Ossiam Shiller Barclays Cape US Sector Value TR 1C (USD)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.079, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.684, "architecture_energy": 88.01, "architecture_maturity": 10.221, "architecture_confidence": 65.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.16, "rotation_up": 85.67, "upward_expansion": 97.43, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.75, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 1711.879989, 1691.549077, 1669.008086, 1658.493543 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1739.300049, "trend_reference": 1652.133333, "distance_from_trend": 0.05276, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1473.324646, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.893086, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041871, "excess_performance": -0.009364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05276, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.64614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3654, "relative_activity": 1.075544, "balance": 1.64614, "dry_up": 1.12573, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017477, "annualized_volatility": 0.118633, "from_high_reference": -0.002581, "from_low_reference": 0.128243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1652.133333, "fair_value_reference": 1473.324646, "structural_low": 1541.599976, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.00972, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006309, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.060351, "worst_return": -0.064803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.025956, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.000778, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.059826, "worst_return": -0.029778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05808, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003322, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.114212, "worst_return": -0.133308, 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1460.992371, "relative_strength": -2.249162, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.870399, "energy": 42.936206, "activity_lines": [ 1662.019995, 1651.481814, 1641.525237, 1641.850324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1705.199951, "volume": 1917, "typical_volume": 3795.25, "trend": 1644.520003, "fair_value": 1464.084262, "relative_strength": -1.561122, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.548815, "energy": 77.208584, "activity_lines": [ 1679.053312, 1662.172714, 1648.127137, 1645.920213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1691.699951, "volume": 7980, "typical_volume": 3962.85, "trend": 1646.456669, "fair_value": 1466.941762, "relative_strength": -3.401584, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.595199, "energy": 76.076515, "activity_lines": [ 1687.766634, 1669.510889, 1653.438561, 1648.96408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1704.199951, "volume": 1747, "typical_volume": 3945.65, "trend": 1649.336666, "fair_value": 1469.970159, "relative_strength": -3.72844, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.301748, "energy": 79.511871, "activity_lines": [ 1695.893294, 1677.981791, 1659.746176, 1652.689453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1739.300049, "volume": 3654, "typical_volume": 3397.35, "trend": 1652.133333, "fair_value": 1473.324646, "relative_strength": -1.893086, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.684103, "energy": 88.009972, "activity_lines": [ 1711.879989, 1691.549077, 1669.008086, 1658.493543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }