{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5f26776-4327-49b7-b599-c2c4580094c1", "symbol": "CP9U", "name": "Amundi MSCI Pacific Ex Japan SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR - USD (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.598, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.404, "architecture_energy": 56.839, "architecture_maturity": 23.245, "architecture_confidence": 70.649, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.04, "rotation_up": 71.57, "upward_expansion": 56.08, "deceleration": 26.6, "rotation_down": 19.05, "downward_expansion": 19.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 774.920007, 765.590915, 763.93286, 763.416131 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 794.5, "trend_reference": 763.530001, "distance_from_trend": 0.040562, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 685.499439, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.133339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025161, "excess_performance": -0.02815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040562, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159009, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025161, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.219623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 769, "relative_activity": 1.235242, "balance": 1.219623, "dry_up": 2.311461, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018386, "annualized_volatility": 0.16951, "from_high_reference": -0.012553, "from_low_reference": 0.12408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 763.530001, "fair_value_reference": 685.499439, "structural_low": 725.400024, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.016622, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008383, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.058182, "worst_return": -0.095675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022944, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.047775, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.099142, "worst_return": -0.162441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03738, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05429, "worst_return": -0.228998, 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759.00381, 760.194623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 762.299988, "volume": 2816, "typical_volume": 714.15, "trend": 759.596665, "fair_value": 682.796234, "relative_strength": -1.138587, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.378549, "energy": 8.547438, "activity_lines": [ 755.759998, 753.929092, 759.219999, 760.4443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 761.700012, "volume": 1969, "typical_volume": 686.4, "trend": 760.306665, "fair_value": 683.484695, "relative_strength": -1.538603, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.040827, "energy": 6.446802, "activity_lines": [ 758.180001, 755.263639, 759.529524, 760.58 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 771.400024, "volume": 202, "typical_volume": 629.35, "trend": 761.633333, "fair_value": 684.37508, "relative_strength": -1.783667, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.973631, "energy": 16.754265, "activity_lines": [ 763.433341, 758.429097, 760.707622, 761.2957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 794.5, "volume": 769, "typical_volume": 622.55, "trend": 763.530001, "fair_value": 685.499439, "relative_strength": -1.133339, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.404027, "energy": 56.83925, "activity_lines": [ 774.920007, 765.590915, 763.93286, 763.416131 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }