{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5f403c4-d9b0-4fbf-8ea3-13955272337f", "symbol": "MCDS", "name": "JPMorgan Fundamental Data Science Mid Core ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.053, "architecture_energy": 73.134, "architecture_maturity": 63.875, "architecture_confidence": 80.938, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.38, "rotation_up": 62.14, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 65.18, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.011427, 67.61573, 66.385655, 65.078289 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 69.309, "trend_reference": 63.557717, "distance_from_trend": 0.090489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.731833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.652778, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119778, "excess_performance": -0.067675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200534, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065185, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079143, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.987732, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1011, "relative_activity": 0.538124, "balance": 5.987732, "dry_up": 2.483832, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015032, "annualized_volatility": 0.110091, "from_high_reference": -0.000616, "from_low_reference": 0.255953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.557717, "fair_value_reference": 57.731833, "structural_low": 58.0172, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013118, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.005074, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.051839, "worst_return": -0.050641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.020972, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.156978, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020972, "worst_return": 0.020972, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"direction": 68.021083, "energy": 86.50055, "activity_lines": [ 67.309736, 66.730291, 65.243012, 64.102651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.1517, "volume": 8162, "typical_volume": 1385.75, "trend": 62.97933, "fair_value": 57.523346, "relative_strength": 1.636743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.995983, "energy": 73.320312, "activity_lines": [ 67.27364, 66.93309, 65.576785, 64.388462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.6288, "volume": 9300, "typical_volume": 1830.55, "trend": 63.266152, "fair_value": 57.620514, "relative_strength": 1.853532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.562983, "energy": 66.310306, "activity_lines": [ 67.37382, 67.150911, 65.922295, 64.688427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.309, "volume": 1011, "typical_volume": 1878.75, "trend": 63.557717, "fair_value": 57.731833, "relative_strength": -0.652778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.052963, "energy": 73.134494, "activity_lines": [ 68.011427, 67.61573, 66.385655, 65.078289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }