{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5f8fe0f-330d-43c4-ba62-156be4e10f43", "symbol": "DXJ", "name": "WisdomTree Japan Equity UCITS ETF - USD Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.811, "architecture_energy": 44.489, "architecture_maturity": 84.647, "architecture_confidence": 59.815, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.26, "rotation_up": 46.55, "upward_expansion": 75.47, "deceleration": 68.66, "rotation_down": 28.22, "downward_expansion": 11.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.676334, 47.652993, 46.767316, 45.866587 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.150002, "trend_reference": 44.666005, "distance_from_trend": 0.078001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.773338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.469182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.0837, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121202, "excess_performance": -0.04969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.469182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029679, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010837, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121202, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.019996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1156, "relative_activity": 0.217004, "balance": 1.019996, "dry_up": 1.749686, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030875, "annualized_volatility": 0.180653, "from_high_reference": -0.016745, "from_low_reference": 0.467041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.666005, "fair_value_reference": 32.773338, "structural_low": 40.775002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.01781, "positive_rate": 0.717391, "directional_follow_through": 0.717391, "median_excess_return": 0.01022, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.209388, "worst_return": -0.168704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.074408, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.079719, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.229258, "worst_return": -0.095407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.130976, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.007914, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.372829, "worst_return": -0.053104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 43.498488, "fair_value": 32.120025, "relative_strength": 4.452165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.263316, "energy": 87.566393, "activity_lines": [ 47.900297, 47.190005, 45.834009, 44.934765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.860001, "volume": 18655, "typical_volume": 5343.35, "trend": 43.785101, "fair_value": 32.280945, "relative_strength": 2.669855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.629935, "energy": 60.997346, "activity_lines": [ 47.660185, 47.243911, 46.025461, 45.151637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.584999, "volume": 13139, "typical_volume": 5506.95, "trend": 44.134338, "fair_value": 32.448974, "relative_strength": 6.254502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.170034, "energy": 63.527715, "activity_lines": [ 47.92418, 47.561544, 46.372293, 45.461308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.68, "volume": 4333, "typical_volume": 5427.4, "trend": 44.413839, "fair_value": 32.60672, "relative_strength": 1.131177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.788673, "energy": 46.016559, "activity_lines": [ 47.527, 47.482905, 46.509459, 45.625544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.150002, "volume": 1156, "typical_volume": 5327.1, "trend": 44.666005, "fair_value": 32.773338, "relative_strength": 1.0837, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.811454, "energy": 44.489492, "activity_lines": [ 47.676334, 47.652993, 46.767316, 45.866587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }