{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5fd8526-9a68-4c9b-ab33-b3254afd5b81", "symbol": "3068", "name": "CSOP ETF Series - CSOP Ether Futures ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.272, "architecture_energy": 24.106, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.752, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.93, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 20.76, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 20.62, "downward_expansion": 54.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.221, 7.950091, 8.318667, 8.657817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.315, "trend_reference": 9.3065, "distance_from_trend": -0.106538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.689231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392588, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.684144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028054, "excess_performance": 0.005528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392588, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119117, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031754, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49820, "relative_activity": 0.26716, "balance": 0.417478, "dry_up": 0.449438, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080577, "annualized_volatility": 0.406638, "from_high_reference": -0.632405, "from_low_reference": 0.248498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.3065, "fair_value_reference": 13.689231, "structural_low": 6.66, 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"typical_volume": 413972.75, "trend": 10.71, "fair_value": 13.844327, "relative_strength": -39.270112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.043624, "energy": 89.23978, "activity_lines": [ 7.788333, 8.575636, 9.054476, 9.647032 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 6.935, "volume": 229092, "typical_volume": 320277.95, "trend": 10.487833, "fair_value": 13.815064, "relative_strength": -41.907467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.542912, "energy": 93.673698, "activity_lines": [ 7.393, 8.172636, 8.841143, 9.403484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.555, "volume": 43206, "typical_volume": 274258.25, "trend": 10.257, "fair_value": 13.791442, "relative_strength": -38.132302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.740882, "energy": 86.109042, "activity_lines": [ 7.371, 7.945545, 8.694571, 9.214269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.8, "volume": 148964, "typical_volume": 276311.45, "trend": 10.023667, "fair_value": 13.763814, "relative_strength": -37.690814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.19405, "energy": 63.095586, "activity_lines": [ 7.516667, 7.812727, 8.576929, 9.055753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.005, "volume": 119800, "typical_volume": 236687.75, "trend": 9.8445, "fair_value": 13.742244, "relative_strength": -36.184763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.111962, "energy": 55.590579, "activity_lines": [ 7.697333, 7.758091, 8.483786, 8.925516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.29, "volume": 95325, "typical_volume": 217179.0, "trend": 9.6775, "fair_value": 13.724103, "relative_strength": -34.105608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.329151, "energy": 38.060803, "activity_lines": [ 7.927667, 7.793909, 8.42319, 8.825226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.265, "volume": 70300, "typical_volume": 206929.0, "trend": 9.497333, "fair_value": 13.706763, "relative_strength": -35.702873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.353448, "energy": 27.434836, "activity_lines": [ 8.110333, 7.856818, 8.365786, 8.734097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.315, "volume": 49820, "typical_volume": 186479.95, "trend": 9.3065, "fair_value": 13.689231, "relative_strength": -33.684144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.271692, "energy": 24.105518, "activity_lines": [ 8.221, 7.950091, 8.318667, 8.657817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }