{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d5fff691-01d4-4349-ab6f-81eae5643ccb", "symbol": "GML", "name": "G.M. Leather S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.21, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.847, "architecture_energy": 33.14, "architecture_maturity": 99.815, "architecture_confidence": 86.119, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.35, "rotation_up": 19.23, "upward_expansion": 4.83, "deceleration": 49.94, "rotation_down": 52.67, "downward_expansion": 73.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.697667, 0.701909, 0.703048, 0.710864 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.71, "trend_reference": 0.726563, "distance_from_trend": -0.022797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.074916, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.339483, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.027995, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065789, "excess_performance": -0.236681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077063, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.339483, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06532, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.5, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21000, "relative_activity": 1.489362, "balance": 1.5, "dry_up": 0.957447, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040628, "annualized_volatility": 0.235658, "from_high_reference": -0.29, "from_low_reference": 0.092308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.726563, "fair_value_reference": 1.074916, "structural_low": 0.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.009009, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.035457, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.190909, "worst_return": -0.136364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.072482, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.151874, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.151786, "worst_return": -0.121032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075122, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.232458, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.02381, "worst_return": -0.168543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.17593, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.406138, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.280431, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031008, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00885, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": 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-28.731635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.836075, "energy": 48.36493, "activity_lines": [ 0.697, 0.696545, 0.708571, 0.727319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.71, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14100.0, "trend": 0.757563, "fair_value": 1.101102, "relative_strength": -27.482816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.985927, "energy": 35.942688, "activity_lines": [ 0.701, 0.698091, 0.707524, 0.723917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.755, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 15650.0, "trend": 0.752897, "fair_value": 1.095749, "relative_strength": -21.827587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.338202, "energy": 9.570244, "activity_lines": [ 0.718, 0.708364, 0.711095, 0.723752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7, "volume": 24000, "typical_volume": 16650.0, "trend": 0.746063, "fair_value": 1.090942, "relative_strength": -25.822857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.186032, "energy": 18.330692, "activity_lines": [ 0.713667, 0.708182, 0.709405, 0.720339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.68, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 15450.0, "trend": 0.738563, "fair_value": 1.085237, "relative_strength": -27.101572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.780433, "energy": 21.963932, "activity_lines": [ 0.704667, 0.704273, 0.706, 0.716077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.68, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 14150.0, "trend": 0.73223, "fair_value": 1.07998, "relative_strength": -26.809008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.176503, "energy": 30.741718, "activity_lines": [ 0.696, 0.700364, 0.702952, 0.712298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.71, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 14100.0, "trend": 0.726563, "fair_value": 1.074916, "relative_strength": -25.027995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.847157, "energy": 33.140226, "activity_lines": [ 0.697667, 0.701909, 0.703048, 0.710864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }