{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d60b287b-0435-4b90-b802-41c0547b3922", "symbol": "MOLDTECH", "name": "Mold-Tek Technologies Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 55.191, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.843, "architecture_energy": 88.056, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.212, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.75, "rotation_up": 81.3, "upward_expansion": 92.21, "deceleration": 44.69, "rotation_down": 10.99, "downward_expansion": 21.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.667999, 145.292908, 136.60919, 133.40772 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 191.410004, "trend_reference": 131.177, "distance_from_trend": 0.459174, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 195.498088, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020911, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.00058, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.441775, "excess_performance": 0.485484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.459174, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.354836, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.310006, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.418919, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.441775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.70411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5738765, "relative_activity": 11.506568, "balance": 5.70411, "dry_up": 3.638545, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073941, "annualized_volatility": 0.550647, "from_high_reference": -0.133891, "from_low_reference": 0.893274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.177, "fair_value_reference": 195.498088, "structural_low": 101.099998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.028978, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.030138, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.333907, "worst_return": -0.243795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018465, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.123064, "worst_return": -0.234525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.142122, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.171145, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.891991, "worst_return": -0.291932, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.439265, "energy": 16.302118, "activity_lines": [ 129.467334, 128.306728, 127.218143, 127.611161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.679993, "volume": 262518, "typical_volume": 174291.7, "trend": 129.434999, "fair_value": 197.291739, "relative_strength": -3.888162, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.398442, "energy": 20.343916, "activity_lines": [ 130.655331, 129.746908, 128.059666, 127.907892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 152.759995, "volume": 1179612, "typical_volume": 219466.6, "trend": 129.487666, "fair_value": 196.230852, "relative_strength": 6.150224, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.687762, "energy": 50.812021, "activity_lines": [ 137.87533, 134.291817, 130.55438, 129.41273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.410004, "volume": 5738765, "typical_volume": 498738.2, "trend": 131.177, "fair_value": 195.498088, "relative_strength": 31.00058, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.842654, "energy": 88.055733, "activity_lines": [ 156.667999, 145.292908, 136.60919, 133.40772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }