{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d61499b5-ff40-4385-af5c-cb1d0fe71c6d", "symbol": "688110", "name": "Dosilicon Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.113, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.011, "architecture_energy": 34.303, "architecture_maturity": 52.372, "architecture_confidence": 59.428, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.83, "rotation_up": 16.79, "upward_expansion": 18.73, "deceleration": 68.18, "rotation_down": 64.66, "downward_expansion": 41.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.440669, 131.980729, 136.790858, 135.604947 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 115.980003, "trend_reference": 133.766, "distance_from_trend": -0.132964, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.917949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.9685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.900737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138656, "excess_performance": -0.095452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.9685, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.116002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559818, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789574, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105763891, "relative_activity": 1.231539, "balance": 0.789574, "dry_up": 1.378597, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.239199, "annualized_volatility": 0.854713, "from_high_reference": -0.420679, "from_low_reference": 0.933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 133.766, "fair_value_reference": 58.917949, "structural_low": 94.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.140874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.113184, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.257754, "worst_return": -0.070669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.20565, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.132181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244012, "worst_return": 0.167287, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.291684, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.1745, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.407044, "worst_return": 0.176324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 3.007788, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 2.762675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.007788, "worst_return": 3.007788, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.17818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.246282, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07958, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106226, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.556894, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.463837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251665, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 36.34, "volume": 44016466, "typical_volume": 69237195.1, "trend": 33.229124, "fair_value": 34.221097, "relative_strength": 9.450179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.588203, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.150002, "volume": 151995750, "typical_volume": 84545001.0, "trend": 134.974667, "fair_value": 58.007308, "relative_strength": -3.936583, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.957665, "energy": 9.915206, "activity_lines": [ 137.213335, 144.287273, 142.006143, 138.903205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.150002, "volume": 109967317, "typical_volume": 84301319.8, "trend": 134.278334, "fair_value": 58.408077, "relative_strength": -12.246298, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.661178, "energy": 33.887361, "activity_lines": [ 120.576002, 136.543274, 138.666477, 136.785484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.980003, "volume": 105763891, "typical_volume": 85879472.2, "trend": 133.766, "fair_value": 58.917949, "relative_strength": -3.900737, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.011075, "energy": 34.302707, "activity_lines": [ 114.440669, 131.980729, 136.790858, 135.604947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }