{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d623951a-be41-4f59-b1d8-63320613e8d5", "symbol": "SAMG", "name": "Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.169, "architecture_energy": 52.977, "architecture_maturity": 59.243, "architecture_confidence": 94.368, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 21.24, "upward_expansion": 8.1, "deceleration": 54.09, "rotation_down": 58.52, "downward_expansion": 81.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.175333, 10.405798, 10.979146, 11.632943 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.21, "trend_reference": 12.54701, "distance_from_trend": -0.18626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.31952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.707302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.291212, "excess_performance": -0.478666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082949, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 281458, "relative_activity": 1.208334, "balance": 0.532198, "dry_up": 1.229398, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096116, "annualized_volatility": 0.295251, "from_high_reference": -0.361651, "from_low_reference": 0.066876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.54701, "fair_value_reference": 14.31952, "structural_low": 9.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.014445, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.001946, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.118871, "worst_return": -0.164291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.08783, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.093784, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.13018, "worst_return": -0.164096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003838, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.238851, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.241149, "worst_return": -0.15535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.71, "volume": 256046, "typical_volume": 203147.75, "trend": 13.16902, "fair_value": 14.510486, "relative_strength": -33.743413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.669634, "energy": 54.916277, "activity_lines": [ 10.866, 11.012452, 11.726058, 12.36591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.95, "volume": 251661, "typical_volume": 210409.2, "trend": 13.017946, "fair_value": 14.458766, "relative_strength": -35.019907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.196931, "energy": 59.699906, "activity_lines": [ 10.547333, 10.769488, 11.492882, 12.158231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.95, "volume": 349008, "typical_volume": 222095.9, "trend": 12.858816, "fair_value": 14.408858, "relative_strength": -33.217253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.62108, "energy": 61.214713, "activity_lines": [ 10.29, 10.583384, 11.282324, 11.960299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.28, "volume": 263330, "typical_volume": 229897.35, "trend": 12.705208, "fair_value": 14.364633, "relative_strength": -30.636315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.779868, "energy": 54.90744, "activity_lines": [ 10.2, 10.490418, 11.125329, 11.793924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.21, "volume": 281458, "typical_volume": 232930.55, "trend": 12.54701, "fair_value": 14.31952, "relative_strength": -33.707302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.168946, "energy": 52.977012, "activity_lines": [ 10.175333, 10.405798, 10.979146, 11.632943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }