{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6264eac-71a9-4476-9b8e-f5aef2b1fa73", "symbol": "TEK", "name": "Tekcapital plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.116, "architecture_energy": 67.86, "architecture_maturity": 66.557, "architecture_confidence": 81.504, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 16.49, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.87, "rotation_down": 72.41, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.040767, 0.044327, 0.051371, 0.057805 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0425, "trend_reference": 0.06885, "distance_from_trend": -0.382716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.084743, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.498485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.277871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.591346, "excess_performance": -0.642581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.382716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.498485, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.502779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.591346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.817783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19414227, "relative_activity": 3.945094, "balance": 0.817783, "dry_up": 1.987572, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12905, "annualized_volatility": 0.435293, "from_high_reference": -0.673077, "from_low_reference": 0.19382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.06885, "fair_value_reference": 0.084743, "structural_low": 0.0356, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.020787, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.247706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.003521, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034048, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.308197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.153244, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.183649, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.28, "worst_return": -0.252174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.342857, 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"relative_strength": -51.773583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.261708, "energy": 95.094769, "activity_lines": [ 0.049433, 0.0534, 0.05946, 0.066309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.041, "volume": 3406023, "typical_volume": 3783621.7, "trend": 0.074317, "fair_value": 0.085924, "relative_strength": -52.292543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.255864, "energy": 95.229893, "activity_lines": [ 0.045933, 0.050591, 0.057217, 0.064048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0385, "volume": 5141661, "typical_volume": 3836465.75, "trend": 0.072683, "fair_value": 0.085514, "relative_strength": -55.252678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.561335, "energy": 95.191362, "activity_lines": [ 0.0426, 0.047745, 0.054917, 0.061738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 11162304, "typical_volume": 4140691.8, "trend": 0.070767, "fair_value": 0.085128, "relative_strength": -53.537172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.118708, "energy": 88.060205, "activity_lines": [ 0.040833, 0.045618, 0.052945, 0.059629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0425, "volume": 19414227, "typical_volume": 4921106.85, "trend": 0.06885, "fair_value": 0.084743, "relative_strength": -50.277871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.116108, "energy": 67.860378, "activity_lines": [ 0.040767, 0.044327, 0.051371, 0.057805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }