{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6282e66-3d19-4180-a05b-611960aa8fa3", "symbol": "SKT", "name": "SKY Network Television Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.563, "architecture_energy": 27.052, "architecture_maturity": 21.75, "architecture_confidence": 54.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.21, "rotation_up": 44.37, "upward_expansion": 71.55, "deceleration": 63.92, "rotation_down": 22.29, "downward_expansion": 7.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.281333, 3.281273, 3.244381, 3.222712 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.24, "trend_reference": 3.199755, "distance_from_trend": 0.012578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.603765, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.846485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042935, "excess_performance": 0.014661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012578, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042935, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 649502, "relative_activity": 1.179005, "balance": 0.605159, "dry_up": 1.023558, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036325, "annualized_volatility": 0.188928, "from_high_reference": -0.073897, "from_low_reference": 0.207792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.199755, "fair_value_reference": 2.603765, "structural_low": 2.934559, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.00872, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00159, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.105611, "worst_return": -0.117216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.039907, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.008665, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.313726, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004347, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.039272, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.37255, "worst_return": -0.156704, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 3.315333, 3.267091, 3.226225, 3.20861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.33, "volume": 298882, "typical_volume": 531729.4, "trend": 3.202, "fair_value": 2.587229, "relative_strength": 1.562186, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.213045, "energy": 64.488023, "activity_lines": [ 3.327333, 3.284727, 3.237714, 3.217164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 537958, "typical_volume": 539105.95, "trend": 3.202, "fair_value": 2.595478, "relative_strength": -0.493108, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.231592, "energy": 50.45943, "activity_lines": [ 3.306, 3.285091, 3.241476, 3.22026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.24, "volume": 649502, "typical_volume": 550890.1, "trend": 3.199755, "fair_value": 2.603765, "relative_strength": -1.846485, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.563117, "energy": 27.052283, "activity_lines": [ 3.281333, 3.281273, 3.244381, 3.222712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }