{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6283163-9220-4bb9-ae67-c9a549927c91", "symbol": "002882", "name": "Jinlongyu Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.533, "architecture_energy": 41.324, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.97, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 18.59, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 43.57, "downward_expansion": 70.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.152667, 19.691733, 21.383866, 23.299971 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.9, "trend_reference": 26.087716, "distance_from_trend": -0.160524, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.923158, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.265305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.305203, "excess_performance": -0.312603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305203, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.400576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111305741, "relative_activity": 4.059768, "balance": 0.400576, "dry_up": 2.017766, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111144, "annualized_volatility": 0.577407, "from_high_reference": -0.465854, "from_low_reference": 0.350185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.087716, "fair_value_reference": 20.923158, "structural_low": 16.219999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.014667, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.029884, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.411109, "worst_return": -0.208647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048043, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021333, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.230776, "worst_return": -0.333573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129152, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.230041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344934, "worst_return": 0.071478, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 93.051325, "activity_lines": [ 18.133333, 19.592512, 22.383601, 24.4994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.02, "volume": 26696300, "typical_volume": 20770439.6, "trend": 26.665382, "fair_value": 20.829943, "relative_strength": -41.898262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.715471, "energy": 89.622003, "activity_lines": [ 17.544667, 18.872663, 21.662451, 23.850192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.6, "volume": 61849749, "typical_volume": 22765247.3, "trend": 26.363049, "fair_value": 20.879796, "relative_strength": -20.761428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.863951, "energy": 61.793956, "activity_lines": [ 19.1, 19.327401, 21.538254, 23.58791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.9, "volume": 111305741, "typical_volume": 27416775.2, "trend": 26.087716, "fair_value": 20.923158, "relative_strength": -26.265305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.532607, "energy": 41.323814, "activity_lines": [ 20.152667, 19.691733, 21.383866, 23.299971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }