{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6293363-6840-4210-99eb-0dbd12c0e02c", "symbol": "ING", "name": "ING Group NV ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.393, "architecture_energy": 93.051, "architecture_maturity": 45.415, "architecture_confidence": 82.553, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 84.9, "upward_expansion": 99.57, "deceleration": 39.18, "rotation_down": 10.69, "downward_expansion": 21.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.244, 33.131818, 31.717953, 30.511469 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 35.68, "trend_reference": 29.301331, "distance_from_trend": 0.217692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.171962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.861051, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.547729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.223135, "excess_performance": 0.097511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.217692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.861051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.165477, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076585, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.223135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.176894, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15727403, "relative_activity": 1.045045, "balance": 2.176894, "dry_up": 0.837076, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042708, "annualized_volatility": 0.294997, "from_high_reference": -0.015317, "from_low_reference": 0.567408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.301331, "fair_value_reference": 19.171962, "structural_low": 23.906383, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.004301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012151, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.180561, "worst_return": -0.260563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032448, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.011822, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.266995, "worst_return": -0.091839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.101825, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.026696, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.352862, "worst_return": -0.077296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.850498, "energy": 74.329846, "activity_lines": [ 31.708, 31.134364, 29.886186, 29.160774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.33, "volume": 11711370, "typical_volume": 15773841.6, "trend": 28.60142, "fair_value": 18.738329, "relative_strength": 11.469621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.610684, "energy": 72.63766, "activity_lines": [ 32.028667, 31.421818, 30.235556, 29.413083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.83, "volume": 10123589, "typical_volume": 15422496.95, "trend": 28.78649, "fair_value": 18.872894, "relative_strength": 13.385514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.856606, "energy": 78.582611, "activity_lines": [ 32.374667, 31.76, 30.611541, 29.685895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.93, "volume": 12827914, "typical_volume": 15275520.35, "trend": 29.027107, "fair_value": 19.020084, "relative_strength": 18.645419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.757094, "energy": 87.72354, "activity_lines": [ 33.322667, 32.418, 31.153234, 30.08225 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.68, "volume": 15727403, "typical_volume": 15049497.05, "trend": 29.301331, "fair_value": 19.171962, "relative_strength": 16.547729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.393156, "energy": 93.050645, "activity_lines": [ 34.244, 33.131818, 31.717953, 30.511469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }