{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d62b2a93-f930-44d2-88ef-34d4d39ec640", "symbol": "LEAD", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe ESG Selection UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.182, "architecture_energy": 60.566, "architecture_maturity": 71.748, "architecture_confidence": 58.811, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.24, "rotation_up": 46.94, "upward_expansion": 75.29, "deceleration": 72.3, "rotation_down": 29.12, "downward_expansion": 15.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.497668, 42.442092, 41.658715, 40.876968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.900002, "trend_reference": 40.045334, "distance_from_trend": 0.071286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.728333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235303, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.222685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099436, "excess_performance": 0.034797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071286, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032227, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099436, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.502522, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39367, "relative_activity": 1.024411, "balance": 1.502522, "dry_up": 1.339252, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018522, "annualized_volatility": 0.151126, "from_high_reference": -0.008894, "from_low_reference": 0.248908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.045334, "fair_value_reference": 34.728333, "structural_low": 35.189999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.010606, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": 0.003294, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.076881, "worst_return": -0.078479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0313, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.000692, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.105681, "worst_return": -0.023966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05348, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022594, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.157494, "worst_return": -0.031095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.911314, "energy": 71.712026, "activity_lines": [ 42.426334, 42.211546, 41.212667, 40.517527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.325001, "volume": 77383, "typical_volume": 39343.5, "trend": 39.9035, "fair_value": 34.642179, "relative_strength": 4.84463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.238109, "energy": 55.891913, "activity_lines": [ 42.364668, 42.28791, 41.419191, 40.683646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.900002, "volume": 39367, "typical_volume": 38428.9, "trend": 40.045334, "fair_value": 34.728333, "relative_strength": 3.222685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.181518, "energy": 60.565993, "activity_lines": [ 42.497668, 42.442092, 41.658715, 40.876968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }