{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d62d1c71-6061-4f32-8b95-9fff5a8a54d7", "symbol": "3526", "name": "Alltop Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 75.865, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.167, "architecture_energy": 43.026, "architecture_maturity": 4.515, "architecture_confidence": 76.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.0, "rotation_up": 15.52, "upward_expansion": 28.52, "deceleration": 50.81, "rotation_down": 63.25, "downward_expansion": 49.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 292.633333, 301.363636, 318.215645, 312.352365 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 289.5, "trend_reference": 298.89738, "distance_from_trend": -0.03144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 223.852055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.989068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16383, "excess_performance": -0.277542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096737, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.511402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932011, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1510659, "relative_activity": 0.381243, "balance": 0.932011, "dry_up": 0.467608, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106948, "annualized_volatility": 0.555334, "from_high_reference": -0.281638, "from_low_reference": 0.341708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 298.89738, "fair_value_reference": 223.852055, "structural_low": 238.383172, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011946, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.081019, "worst_return": -0.143713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037808, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090278, "worst_return": -0.035227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009299, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.132085, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212963, "worst_return": -0.194365, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 282.5, "volume": 2534994, "typical_volume": 4007614.25, "trend": 297.052152, "fair_value": 222.870543, "relative_strength": -21.841212, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.847571, "energy": 35.582685, "activity_lines": [ 296.066667, 306.463636, 320.921036, 312.839601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 289.5, "volume": 1510659, "typical_volume": 3962454.5, "trend": 298.89738, "fair_value": 223.852055, "relative_strength": -21.989068, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.16696, "energy": 43.025565, "activity_lines": [ 292.633333, 301.363636, 318.215645, 312.352365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }