{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d633232f-0201-4226-a599-5770b30767b6", "symbol": "KSM-F206", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd - KSM ETF (4A) TA-Construction ETF", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.185, "architecture_energy": 67.668, "architecture_maturity": 93.898, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.71, "rotation_down": 58.75, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 192.093333, 197.161818, 4934.318571, 9232.795484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 184.9, "trend_reference": 14256.943333, "distance_from_trend": -0.987031, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15802.296795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.023919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991471, "excess_performance": -1.020372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.987031, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988299, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.485794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.907544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.055545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110981, "relative_activity": 5.811223, "balance": 0.055545, "dry_up": 1.843246, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.313267, "annualized_volatility": 6.329706, "from_high_reference": -0.992663, "from_low_reference": 0.027222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14256.943333, "fair_value_reference": 15802.296795, "structural_low": 180.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.010545, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.365019, "worst_return": -0.194656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.108595, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.038036, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.226181, "worst_return": -0.08855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.165571, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.034298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.482893, "worst_return": -0.019847, "sufficient": false }, 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"direction": -68.417876, "energy": 68.3533, "activity_lines": [ 201.273333, 583.423636, 7124.896667, 11192.706022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 189.4, "volume": 19358, "typical_volume": 14048.45, "trend": 15028.446667, "fair_value": 15885.791026, "relative_strength": -99.021774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.343015, "energy": 68.054527, "activity_lines": [ 197.206667, 200.696364, 5977.296667, 10190.443656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 184.9, "volume": 110981, "typical_volume": 19097.7, "trend": 14256.943333, "fair_value": 15802.296795, "relative_strength": -99.023919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.18492, "energy": 67.668433, "activity_lines": [ 192.093333, 197.161818, 4934.318571, 9232.795484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }