{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d634e3e0-ddac-4627-913c-943603b3b722", "symbol": "IUR", "name": "KAP AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.255, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.883, "architecture_energy": 17.555, "architecture_maturity": 29.941, "architecture_confidence": 63.66, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.91, "rotation_up": 22.28, "upward_expansion": 52.94, "deceleration": 82.83, "rotation_down": 33.97, "downward_expansion": 18.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.817, 1.845636, 1.842476, 1.808774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.825, "trend_reference": 1.778833, "distance_from_trend": 0.025953, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.639006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.788749, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.227933, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061047, "excess_performance": -0.003593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025953, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180135, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.788749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.512279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1416, "relative_activity": 0.173534, "balance": 0.643852, "dry_up": 0.230459, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068704, "annualized_volatility": 0.638316, "from_high_reference": -0.803763, "from_low_reference": 0.382576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.778833, "fair_value_reference": 8.639006, "structural_low": 1.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.032828, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.008531, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.030812, "worst_return": -0.15311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.062041, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.103274, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.080808, "worst_return": -0.251309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.140776, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.183083, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.080808, "worst_return": -0.813131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.281583, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.399531, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.09322, "worst_return": -0.792929, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050847, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027933, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.792973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022409, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.0, "volume": 307, "typical_volume": 1503.2, "trend": 15.980726, "fair_value": 15.828239, "relative_strength": -1.670274, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.682568, "energy": 20.140898, "activity_lines": [ 16.546666, 16.994941, 16.765111, 16.482619 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 14.5, "volume": 3151, "typical_volume": 1539.1, "trend": 15.995016, "fair_value": 15.857199, "relative_strength": -10.600896, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.304048, "energy": 40.920951, "activity_lines": [ 15.746666, 16.529595, 16.572397, 16.387089 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 14.0, "volume": 2454, "typical_volume": 1621.3, "trend": 15.98184, "fair_value": 15.882428, "relative_strength": -14.251599, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.454661, "energy": 63.339092, "activity_lines": [ 15.026666, 16.004257, 16.339281, 16.258378 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 15.1, "volume": 4732, "typical_volume": 1820.45, "trend": 16.006873, "fair_value": 15.914709, "relative_strength": -6.576638, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.516497, "energy": 60.947682, "activity_lines": [ 14.886667, 15.725662, 16.218319, 16.201485 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 15.1, "volume": 2948, "typical_volume": 1842.6, "trend": 16.038077, "fair_value": 15.934926, "relative_strength": -6.967956, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.411604, "energy": 63.903285, "activity_lines": [ 14.86, 15.487273, 16.099512, 16.142977 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 15.0, "volume": 1710, "typical_volume": 1905.4, "trend": 16.067491, "fair_value": 15.963943, "relative_strength": -5.080765, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.436552, "energy": 52.256515, "activity_lines": [ 14.88, 15.270909, 15.977744, 16.076004 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 14.8, "volume": 1166, "typical_volume": 1931.8, "trend": 16.080982, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.329792, "energy": 24.445123, "activity_lines": [ 1.888333, 1.867909, 1.835024, 1.802871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.825, "volume": 1866, "typical_volume": 9048.9, "trend": 1.78, "fair_value": 8.828077, "relative_strength": -53.024042, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.097925, "energy": 30.04777, "activity_lines": [ 1.867667, 1.862091, 1.839048, 1.80572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.78, "volume": 2954, "typical_volume": 8896.6, "trend": 1.777667, "fair_value": 8.731795, "relative_strength": -53.149159, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.030366, "energy": 14.861448, "activity_lines": [ 1.833, 1.849727, 1.838905, 1.80572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.825, "volume": 1416, "typical_volume": 8159.8, "trend": 1.778833, "fair_value": 8.639006, "relative_strength": -51.227933, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.883406, "energy": 17.55499, "activity_lines": [ 1.817, 1.845636, 1.842476, 1.808774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }