{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d635becf-7276-4c01-ac27-6565b45e87b8", "symbol": "OMI", "name": "Orosur Mining Inc.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.783, "architecture_energy": 67.168, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.952, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 13.24, "upward_expansion": 14.4, "deceleration": 39.42, "rotation_down": 70.23, "downward_expansion": 90.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1566, 0.165, 0.181233, 0.191087 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.1605, "trend_reference": 0.214467, "distance_from_trend": -0.251632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.107715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.490047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.625631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.527941, "excess_performance": -0.579176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.251632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.490047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.606234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.527941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.177257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22200490, "relative_activity": 2.884329, "balance": 1.177257, "dry_up": 1.255186, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15665, "annualized_volatility": 0.840224, "from_high_reference": -0.608537, "from_low_reference": 0.4254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.214467, "fair_value_reference": 0.107715, "structural_low": 0.13625, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.043256, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.048931, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.956364, "worst_return": -0.397163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.120164, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.141207, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.191781, "worst_return": -0.635294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.143253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.203735, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.60274, "worst_return": -0.610063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.707317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.446869, "energy": 73.86268, "activity_lines": [ 0.169, 0.180773, 0.191717, 0.203556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 3167244, "typical_volume": 8062018.75, "trend": 0.220867, "fair_value": 0.106176, "relative_strength": -29.519444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.649616, "energy": 74.809658, "activity_lines": [ 0.1642, 0.174864, 0.188369, 0.199495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1475, "volume": 5519464, "typical_volume": 7390128.95, "trend": 0.21745, "fair_value": 0.106907, "relative_strength": -35.914408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.709801, "energy": 78.739003, "activity_lines": [ 0.157067, 0.168136, 0.184069, 0.194761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1605, "volume": 22200490, "typical_volume": 7696933.2, "trend": 0.214467, "fair_value": 0.107715, "relative_strength": -30.625631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.783303, "energy": 67.167823, "activity_lines": [ 0.1566, 0.165, 0.181233, 0.191087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }