{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d63ffe97-8cf4-4738-9fb8-8633f3413b72", "symbol": "FHI", "name": "Federated Investors Inc B", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.658, "architecture_energy": 61.544, "architecture_maturity": 23.978, "architecture_confidence": 83.94, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.65, "rotation_up": 66.1, "upward_expansion": 84.88, "deceleration": 47.48, "rotation_down": 13.59, "downward_expansion": 11.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.185893, 59.168103, 57.869474, 57.170319 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 63.16, "trend_reference": 56.156119, "distance_from_trend": 0.124722, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.213694, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.5325, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.603593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.220049, "excess_performance": 0.094424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124722, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050183, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.5325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098556, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046036, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0576, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.220049, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.052596, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3298940, "relative_activity": 0.953174, "balance": 2.052596, "dry_up": 0.811496, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052123, "annualized_volatility": 0.206717, "from_high_reference": -0.054464, "from_low_reference": 0.381132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.156119, "fair_value_reference": 41.213694, "structural_low": 51.703839, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.000738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0048, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.116908, "worst_return": -0.159091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011494, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.002868, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.281888, "worst_return": -0.066112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.094291, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.061203, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.255575, "worst_return": -0.148941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.60141, "volume": 3100100, "typical_volume": 3597875.05, "trend": 55.790214, "fair_value": 40.998243, "relative_strength": 2.225724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.956764, "energy": 41.153325, "activity_lines": [ 58.529857, 58.209911, 57.247088, 56.694849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.16, "volume": 3298940, "typical_volume": 3461005.3, "trend": 56.156119, "fair_value": 41.213694, "relative_strength": 4.603593, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.658007, "energy": 61.544322, "activity_lines": [ 60.185893, 59.168103, 57.869474, 57.170319 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }