{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d644a184-b9e9-4a50-813b-755cb3e108d8", "symbol": "4304", "name": "SunVic Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.378, "architecture_energy": 81.678, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.371, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 14.28, "upward_expansion": 18.45, "deceleration": 39.94, "rotation_down": 77.82, "downward_expansion": 96.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.5, 17.830909, 21.290953, 23.302258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.049999, "trend_reference": 25.775, "distance_from_trend": -0.377304, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.566795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.937247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.435852, "excess_performance": -0.877224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.377304, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120607, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.111316, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.489372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.521833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.435852, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.113123, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77000, "relative_activity": 0.459132, "balance": 0.113123, "dry_up": 0.640677, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15768, "annualized_volatility": 0.40137, "from_high_reference": -0.55042, "from_low_reference": 1.100785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.775, "fair_value_reference": 13.566795, "structural_low": 15.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.017478, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.00479, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.771186, "worst_return": -0.368687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.073016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035149, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.033074, "worst_return": -0.337629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177481, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.112744, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.346649, "worst_return": -0.178836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 18.873334, 20.822728, 23.847381, 25.390108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 111101, "typical_volume": 181684.6, "trend": 26.858333, "fair_value": 13.482244, "relative_strength": -44.547482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.859583, "energy": 89.198846, "activity_lines": [ 17.936667, 19.674546, 22.969762, 24.684946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.7, "volume": 101685, "typical_volume": 173068.8, "trend": 26.323333, "fair_value": 13.523462, "relative_strength": -48.295769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.466598, "energy": 86.838418, "activity_lines": [ 17.053334, 18.609091, 22.086667, 23.965054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.049999, "volume": 77000, "typical_volume": 167707.7, "trend": 25.775, "fair_value": 13.566795, "relative_strength": -48.937247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.378018, "energy": 81.677647, "activity_lines": [ 16.5, 17.830909, 21.290953, 23.302258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }