{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d646b519-1b39-4691-a81f-2ffcb5de0f2d", "symbol": "ALHIT", "name": "HITECHPROS Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.006, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.257, "architecture_energy": 10.263, "architecture_maturity": 30.086, "architecture_confidence": 59.599, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.71, "rotation_up": 29.08, "upward_expansion": 30.36, "deceleration": 63.09, "rotation_down": 36.24, "downward_expansion": 25.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.066667, 13.123864, 12.922827, 12.856895 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.2, "trend_reference": 13.020208, "distance_from_trend": 0.013809, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.430497, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085271, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.54289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09589, "excess_performance": -0.149202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040695, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.166966, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 450, "relative_activity": 0.619238, "balance": 1.166966, "dry_up": 1.426655, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046766, "annualized_volatility": 0.348517, "from_high_reference": -0.193365, "from_low_reference": 0.168142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.020208, "fair_value_reference": 14.430497, "structural_low": 11.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.010977, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.057692, "worst_return": -0.116438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.001203, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.09375, "worst_return": -0.206452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030758, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00493, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.136986, "worst_return": -0.167742, "sufficient": true 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006061, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105584, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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12.507173, 12.952164 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 12.65625, "volume": 283, "typical_volume": 1182.5, "trend": 13.477708, "fair_value": 14.441143, "relative_strength": -15.283011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.56142, "energy": 21.46687, "activity_lines": [ 12.50625, 12.449886, 12.486458, 12.894987 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 14.0625, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 1151.85, "trend": 13.466458, "fair_value": 14.445185, "relative_strength": -6.252894, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.47243, "energy": 22.533828, "activity_lines": [ 13.05625, 12.7425, 12.609405, 12.932715 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.3125, "volume": 210, "typical_volume": 1116.8, "trend": 13.403542, "fair_value": 14.445457, "relative_strength": -10.417668, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.198544, "energy": 14.662598, "activity_lines": [ 13.245833, 13.102841, 12.820536, 12.887473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.7, "volume": 920, "typical_volume": 880.45, "trend": 13.153542, "fair_value": 14.43411, "relative_strength": -12.448738, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.29495, "energy": 12.479875, "activity_lines": [ 13.020833, 13.067614, 12.831458, 12.852191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.1, "volume": 1649, "typical_volume": 749.55, "trend": 13.073542, "fair_value": 14.432502, "relative_strength": -10.598869, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.398083, "energy": 8.855543, "activity_lines": [ 13.02, 13.092386, 12.87619, 12.848737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": 726.7, "trend": 13.020208, "fair_value": 14.430497, "relative_strength": -11.54289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.256564, "energy": 10.26318, "activity_lines": [ 13.066667, 13.123864, 12.922827, 12.856895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }