{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d64b6297-d877-47fd-b399-5ed8d1c30f0e", "symbol": "KLBN11", "name": "Klabin S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.029, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.206, "architecture_energy": 19.69, "architecture_maturity": 21.932, "architecture_confidence": 67.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.77, "rotation_up": 41.54, "upward_expansion": 34.17, "deceleration": 46.29, "rotation_down": 14.19, "downward_expansion": 42.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.887333, 17.606364, 17.428047, 17.755527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.01, "trend_reference": 18.238, "distance_from_trend": -0.012501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.939407, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003935, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.637524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066839, "excess_performance": -0.009791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042679, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066839, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.45864, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31645400, "relative_activity": 1.553525, "balance": 1.45864, "dry_up": 1.163709, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034724, "annualized_volatility": 0.195669, "from_high_reference": -0.152471, "from_low_reference": 0.123794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.238, "fair_value_reference": 17.939407, "structural_low": 16.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.009243, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.033718, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134534, "worst_return": -0.083922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.052021, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.008299, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.131698, "worst_return": -0.140912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.075881, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203366, "worst_return": -0.142087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013662, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.076883, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206981, "worst_return": -0.117669, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056395, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072538, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008144, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.009167, "volume": 24626978, "typical_volume": 30665853.15, "trend": 15.168463, "fair_value": 16.036619, "relative_strength": 10.362823, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.969982, "energy": 37.995806, "activity_lines": [ 17.035999, 16.935999, 17.450619, 17.928456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.540001, "volume": 23473900, "typical_volume": 20675310.0, "trend": 18.349333, "fair_value": 17.914769, "relative_strength": -9.748005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.511431, "energy": 28.716915, "activity_lines": [ 17.208, 17.046, 17.400333, 17.875935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.58, "volume": 16956900, "typical_volume": 20039660.0, "trend": 18.325667, "fair_value": 17.926422, "relative_strength": -6.923394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.479556, "energy": 22.284908, "activity_lines": [ 17.360667, 17.162182, 17.366047, 17.826301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.52, "volume": 19155200, "typical_volume": 19767320.0, "trend": 18.289667, "fair_value": 17.929723, "relative_strength": -6.926603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.80662, "energy": 23.180252, "activity_lines": [ 17.446667, 17.260363, 17.340238, 17.774322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.25, "volume": 27061800, "typical_volume": 20091565.0, "trend": 18.261667, "fair_value": 17.933864, "relative_strength": -4.78089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.026157, "energy": 20.06418, "activity_lines": [ 17.75, 17.471454, 17.393524, 17.771763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.01, "volume": 31645400, "typical_volume": 20370065.0, "trend": 18.238, "fair_value": 17.939407, "relative_strength": -2.637524, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.205886, "energy": 19.690177, "activity_lines": [ 17.887333, 17.606364, 17.428047, 17.755527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }