{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6581ecb-66ed-44b0-9f79-86ef35d365c1", "symbol": "2150", "name": "The National Company for Glass Industries", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.694, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.639, "architecture_energy": 3.887, "architecture_maturity": 47.625, "architecture_confidence": 88.063, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.82, "rotation_up": 31.13, "upward_expansion": 24.92, "deceleration": 43.94, "rotation_down": 30.46, "downward_expansion": 29.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.379999, 36.27709, 36.565634, 36.570088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.939999, "trend_reference": 36.396079, "distance_from_trend": 0.014944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.442552, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.45495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01793, "excess_performance": 0.049759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006059, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086606, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004549, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03935, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01793, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 635129, "relative_activity": 0.911435, "balance": 1.356458, "dry_up": 0.704508, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027196, "annualized_volatility": 0.158043, "from_high_reference": -0.121634, "from_low_reference": 0.108346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.396079, "fair_value_reference": 40.442552, "structural_low": 33.328946, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.022784, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.010997, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.170437, "worst_return": -0.087301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092747, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.029238, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.074128, "worst_return": -0.121832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073324, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.044198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031793, "worst_return": -0.192593, "sufficient": false }, 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36.799717, 36.587855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.0, "volume": 321304, "typical_volume": 719446.2, "trend": 36.27704, "fair_value": 40.436523, "relative_strength": -2.540166, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.355757, "energy": 26.910502, "activity_lines": [ 36.116, 36.454182, 36.740519, 36.567293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.919998, "volume": 438601, "typical_volume": 727867.3, "trend": 36.274531, "fair_value": 40.435773, "relative_strength": -1.661957, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.447883, "energy": 30.976838, "activity_lines": [ 36.029333, 36.302181, 36.669477, 36.544258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.119999, "volume": 402730, "typical_volume": 725640.1, "trend": 36.281303, "fair_value": 40.428077, "relative_strength": -1.603808, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.165649, "energy": 22.555154, "activity_lines": [ 36.031999, 36.210545, 36.610466, 36.534289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.200001, "volume": 487274, "typical_volume": 689260.6, "trend": 36.303811, "fair_value": 40.427946, "relative_strength": 0.692859, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.618271, "energy": 15.433443, "activity_lines": [ 36.093333, 36.167272, 36.551199, 36.529043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.939999, "volume": 635129, "typical_volume": 696845.45, "trend": 36.396079, "fair_value": 40.442552, "relative_strength": 0.45495, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.63935, "energy": 3.88742, "activity_lines": [ 36.379999, 36.27709, 36.565634, 36.570088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }