{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d659b197-e49c-4394-b816-d858caa2c40d", "symbol": "AIDE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II EUR Credit PAB Opportunities UCITS ETF EUR Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.513, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.222, "architecture_energy": 28.026, "architecture_maturity": 55.488, "architecture_confidence": 78.093, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.07, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 51.8, "deceleration": 88.01, "rotation_down": 44.46, "downward_expansion": 26.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.031667, 10.051982, 10.045679, 10.034204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.0625, "trend_reference": 10.02989, "distance_from_trend": 0.003251, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.894953, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016933, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.003364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001207, "excess_performance": -0.172099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003251, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002034, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021769, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 27.984169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2111, "relative_activity": 0.441535, "balance": 27.984169, "dry_up": 0.219408, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004182, "annualized_volatility": 0.036124, "from_high_reference": -0.008831, "from_low_reference": 0.018673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.02989, "fair_value_reference": 9.894953, "structural_low": 9.878047, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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10.047967, 10.061691, 10.042139, 10.033207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.0085, "volume": 86, "typical_volume": 5550.5, "trend": 10.028641, "fair_value": 9.89319, "relative_strength": -12.33285, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.508677, "energy": 22.61465, "activity_lines": [ 10.026833, 10.051773, 10.04151, 10.03202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.0625, "volume": 2111, "typical_volume": 4781.05, "trend": 10.02989, "fair_value": 9.894953, "relative_strength": -14.003364, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.222321, "energy": 28.026276, "activity_lines": [ 10.031667, 10.051982, 10.045679, 10.034204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }