{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d65ae635-5bda-4cc2-90ef-b9807c7c426d", "symbol": "300844", "name": "Guangzhou S.P.I Design Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.636, "architecture_energy": 62.711, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.85, "rotation_down": 54.86, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.654, 22.080546, 25.095524, 28.080452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.93, "trend_reference": 32.271, "distance_from_trend": -0.289455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.317326, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243667, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.965725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.451304, "excess_performance": -0.458704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.289455, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243667, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.417241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.429657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.451304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.244456, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6810576, "relative_activity": 1.281894, "balance": 0.244456, "dry_up": 1.388566, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124795, "annualized_volatility": 0.42837, "from_high_reference": -0.624098, "from_low_reference": 0.201152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.271, "fair_value_reference": 30.317326, "structural_low": 19.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.041781, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.090216, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.281451, "worst_return": -0.266211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.152946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182675, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.278476, "worst_return": -0.368574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.242953, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.329095, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.121951, "worst_return": -0.363956, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.4, "volume": 6642524, "typical_volume": 4537879.9, "trend": 34.056333, "fair_value": 30.309615, "relative_strength": -50.306631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.845709, "energy": 88.431458, "activity_lines": [ 22.868667, 24.649637, 28.36, 31.183032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.049999, "volume": 7813525, "typical_volume": 4815252.85, "trend": 33.590667, "fair_value": 30.311126, "relative_strength": -47.902029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.547334, "energy": 81.657543, "activity_lines": [ 22.135333, 23.61, 27.369191, 30.343914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.860001, "volume": 8549360, "typical_volume": 5053589.4, "trend": 33.113333, "fair_value": 30.303635, "relative_strength": -50.249799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.423065, "energy": 70.852413, "activity_lines": [ 21.268, 22.611818, 26.373334, 29.458065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.52, "volume": 6335791, "typical_volume": 5164789.7, "trend": 32.689667, "fair_value": 30.307747, "relative_strength": -44.449166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.039354, "energy": 65.434745, "activity_lines": [ 21.218667, 22.130727, 25.628857, 28.710108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.93, "volume": 6810576, "typical_volume": 5312900.4, "trend": 32.271, "fair_value": 30.317326, "relative_strength": -42.965725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.636028, "energy": 62.711252, "activity_lines": [ 21.654, 22.080546, 25.095524, 28.080452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }