{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d65b068b-02ee-4e3c-ba75-cb66e0b5bcc8",
    "symbol": "XDEM",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Momentum UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 32.5,
    "architecture_energy": 26.579,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.308,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.424,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.4,
        "rotation_up": 19.89,
        "upward_expansion": 54.85,
        "deceleration": 94.0,
        "rotation_down": 32.27,
        "downward_expansion": 20.85
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        83.928,
        85.309273,
        84.216714,
        81.450021
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 84.209999,
    "trend_reference": 78.055333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.07885,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 63.117372,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334181,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.063215,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.189239,
    "excess_performance": 0.018347,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07885,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076754,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.334181,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017577,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020632,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04831,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.189239,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.794117,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 58983,
      "relative_activity": 1.787074,
      "balance": 2.794117,
      "dry_up": 1.218613,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.042705,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.185206,
      "from_high_reference": -0.0694,
      "from_low_reference": 0.290179
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 78.055333,
      "fair_value_reference": 63.117372,
      "structural_low": 66.129997,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.015991,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014635,
        "regime_survival": 0.3,
        "best_return": 0.117509,
        "worst_return": -0.088658,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.024601,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.046946,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.164724,
        "worst_return": -0.032362,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.089457,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018348,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.208147,
        "worst_return": -0.162915,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.062251,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.046302,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.089688,
        "worst_return": -0.120302,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.067332,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007898,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016613,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020938,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.070733,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010484,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003117,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013501,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.020514,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002879,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.020233,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 27430.15,
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        "fair_value": 59.36891,
        "relative_strength": 0.881403,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 59.860321,
        "relative_strength": 4.752981,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 34958.35,
        "trend": 72.031333,
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        "relative_strength": 5.619262,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.1381,
        "energy": 92.949025,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 65697,
        "typical_volume": 37063.65,
        "trend": 72.491333,
        "fair_value": 60.385032,
        "relative_strength": 5.211326,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 79.916154,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 84.580002,
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        "typical_volume": 36519.2,
        "trend": 73.047666,
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        "relative_strength": 6.228334,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 77.387684,
        "energy": 89.704399,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 35492.0,
        "trend": 73.648,
        "fair_value": 60.928974,
        "relative_strength": 5.570419,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 8359,
        "typical_volume": 32660.7,
        "trend": 75.089333,
        "fair_value": 61.523494,
        "relative_strength": 8.430949,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.633643,
        "energy": 90.742327,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 88.129997,
        "volume": 2753,
        "typical_volume": 31042.2,
        "trend": 75.704666,
        "fair_value": 61.814423,
        "relative_strength": 4.203872,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 68.312898,
        "energy": 87.205773,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 86.830002,
        "volume": 37803,
        "typical_volume": 31651.45,
        "trend": 76.303666,
        "fair_value": 62.092853,
        "relative_strength": 3.014266,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.637097,
        "energy": 75.295705,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 82.669998,
        "volume": 44168,
        "typical_volume": 32189.15,
        "trend": 76.739333,
        "fair_value": 62.343558,
        "relative_strength": -0.504864,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.49124,
        "energy": 53.843029,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.225999,
          86.384,
          83.102619,
          80.140581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 85.18,
        "volume": 29440,
        "typical_volume": 32313.0,
        "trend": 77.24,
        "fair_value": 62.605449,
        "relative_strength": 2.62415,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.452385,
        "energy": 40.661725,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.485999,
          86.279636,
          83.656762,
          80.68514
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 82.540001,
        "volume": 28292,
        "typical_volume": 31638.7,
        "trend": 77.654333,
        "fair_value": 62.855481,
        "relative_strength": -1.200451,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.486522,
        "energy": 27.380288,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.214667,
          85.635636,
          83.88781,
          81.027075
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 84.209999,
        "volume": 58983,
        "typical_volume": 33005.35,
        "trend": 78.055333,
        "fair_value": 63.117372,
        "relative_strength": -2.063215,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.499619,
        "energy": 26.579451,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.928,
          85.309273,
          84.216714,
          81.450021
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}