{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d65bb59c-247f-4efb-a4e1-7aadf2acb632", "symbol": "ALIBR", "name": "CALIBRE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.819, "architecture_energy": 7.917, "architecture_maturity": 32.409, "architecture_confidence": 53.99, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.21, "rotation_up": 28.08, "upward_expansion": 14.61, "deceleration": 35.83, "rotation_down": 20.87, "downward_expansion": 57.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000333, 0.00032, 0.000332, 0.00034 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0004, "trend_reference": 0.000353, "distance_from_trend": 0.132075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.960774, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.970118, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.053311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132075, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.960774, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023593, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009701, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.258308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.885212, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 423451146, "relative_activity": 2.503069, "balance": 4.885212, "dry_up": 0.625767, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 1.409349, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000353, "fair_value_reference": 0.010197, "structural_low": 0.0002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.056118, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.056164, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.73913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.207082, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.20604, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.396277, "worst_return": -0.965517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.490291, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.533741, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.990291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.228936, "energy": 44.066204, "activity_lines": [ 0.0003, 0.000318, 0.000334, 0.000343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 174575349.15, "trend": 0.00035, "fair_value": 0.0112, "relative_strength": -22.36953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.591586, "energy": 41.224656, "activity_lines": [ 0.0003, 0.000311, 0.00033, 0.00034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 156513626.95, "trend": 0.00035, "fair_value": 0.010586, "relative_strength": -23.053483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.314141, "energy": 40.211599, "activity_lines": [ 0.0003, 0.000305, 0.000326, 0.000337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0004, "volume": 423451146, "typical_volume": 169172802.65, "trend": 0.000353, "fair_value": 0.010197, "relative_strength": 0.970118, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.81898, "energy": 7.917397, "activity_lines": [ 0.000333, 0.00032, 0.000332, 0.00034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }