{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d663417e-e2b7-4396-afa5-e1c7be633bc1", "symbol": "MLUX", "name": "Amundi PEA Luxe Mnd UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.821, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.246, "architecture_energy": 13.161, "architecture_maturity": 14.056, "architecture_confidence": 54.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.81, "rotation_up": 29.73, "upward_expansion": 30.34, "deceleration": 63.13, "rotation_down": 32.01, "downward_expansion": 21.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.6652, 9.672055, 9.571976, 9.513252 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.845, "trend_reference": 9.526733, "distance_from_trend": 0.033408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.585414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.908642, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004952, "excess_performance": -0.058264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063685, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001323, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.117395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29190, "relative_activity": 0.813198, "balance": 1.117395, "dry_up": 0.746059, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035059, "annualized_volatility": 0.20846, "from_high_reference": -0.069383, "from_low_reference": 0.144767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.526733, "fair_value_reference": 9.585414, "structural_low": 8.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04235, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 9.997, "volume": 2335, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 9.992, "volume": 8637, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.136915, "energy": 41.18875, "activity_lines": [ 9.73, 9.608091, 9.449376, 9.494686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.658, "volume": 41686, "typical_volume": 39436.4, "trend": 9.606033, "fair_value": 9.582885, "relative_strength": -2.985593, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.777987, "energy": 27.210893, "activity_lines": [ 9.7122, 9.640291, 9.473295, 9.497359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.638, "volume": 35441, "typical_volume": 39813.9, "trend": 9.585967, "fair_value": 9.583549, "relative_strength": -3.075547, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.55206, "energy": 15.563399, "activity_lines": [ 9.677667, 9.659255, 9.497843, 9.499422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.445, "volume": 19368, "typical_volume": 37932.95, "trend": 9.563133, "fair_value": 9.5819, "relative_strength": -5.241578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.989675, "energy": 5.300923, "activity_lines": [ 9.592933, 9.635782, 9.5058, 9.490327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.621, "volume": 23121, "typical_volume": 35945.6, "trend": 9.547533, "fair_value": 9.58236, "relative_strength": -4.927185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.561555, "energy": 5.9336, "activity_lines": [ 9.586533, 9.637, 9.529319, 9.49406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.845, "volume": 29190, "typical_volume": 35895.3, "trend": 9.526733, "fair_value": 9.585414, "relative_strength": -4.908642, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.245787, "energy": 13.161126, "activity_lines": [ 9.6652, 9.672055, 9.571976, 9.513252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }