{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d664e3ce-3bce-481f-b047-d269ad9746cf", "symbol": "300878", "name": "Zhejiang Wecome Pharmaceutical Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.154, "architecture_energy": 20.563, "architecture_maturity": 37.29, "architecture_confidence": 91.209, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.48, "rotation_up": 28.82, "upward_expansion": 50.03, "deceleration": 87.65, "rotation_down": 38.36, "downward_expansion": 27.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.905333, 31.706727, 31.477476, 30.820796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.84, "trend_reference": 30.390667, "distance_from_trend": 0.146405, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.450106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.624234, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.575418, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.330787, "excess_performance": 0.323387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146405, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073079, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.624234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.225754, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.330787, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25221201, "relative_activity": 1.647268, "balance": 0.74895, "dry_up": 1.755843, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160536, "annualized_volatility": 0.655065, "from_high_reference": -0.133764, "from_low_reference": 0.746366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.390667, "fair_value_reference": 21.450106, "structural_low": 21.610001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.071769, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.061387, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.352287, "worst_return": -0.143027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032484, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010916, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.464109, "worst_return": -0.156627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.134872, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.092483, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.497793, "worst_return": -0.233594, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.225477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14362, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04896, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018366, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 21.331208, "relative_strength": 0.29262, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.989954, "energy": 10.191619, "activity_lines": [ 31.243333, 31.671273, 31.211905, 30.609312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.5, "volume": 21392435, "typical_volume": 14397448.0, "trend": 30.079667, "fair_value": 21.369585, "relative_strength": 5.781697, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.952546, "energy": 12.32601, "activity_lines": [ 29.857333, 31.064546, 31.040429, 30.513678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.84, "volume": 25221201, "typical_volume": 15310929.05, "trend": 30.390667, "fair_value": 21.450106, "relative_strength": 22.575418, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.153885, "energy": 20.563407, "activity_lines": [ 30.905333, 31.706727, 31.477476, 30.820796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }