{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6686bb3-c554-48a4-8387-5de184185b7a", "symbol": "3005", "name": "Umm Al-Qura Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.02, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.778, "architecture_energy": 12.858, "architecture_maturity": 62.338, "architecture_confidence": 86.611, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.02, "rotation_up": 19.11, "upward_expansion": 56.38, "deceleration": 86.7, "rotation_down": 37.99, "downward_expansion": 22.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.396667, 13.58, 13.577667, 13.337828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.89, "trend_reference": 13.107, "distance_from_trend": -0.016556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.753782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.486499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000775, "excess_performance": 0.031054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016556, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181784, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 985789, "relative_activity": 2.232738, "balance": 0.649726, "dry_up": 1.029423, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037716, "annualized_volatility": 0.290854, "from_high_reference": -0.174247, "from_low_reference": 0.163357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.107, "fair_value_reference": 15.753782, "structural_low": 11.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00119, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.000729, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.096597, "worst_return": -0.067086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066061, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.039045, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.08879, "worst_return": -0.112131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.056497, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000584, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.053572, "worst_return": -0.09428, "sufficient": 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"2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057508, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031322, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.286564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067294, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 18.02, "volume": 546920, "typical_volume": 251329.65, "trend": 17.521333, "fair_value": 24.140618, "relative_strength": -3.49753, "stage": 1, 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13.865333, 13.84, 13.545, 13.285806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.75, "volume": 233506, "typical_volume": 405765.9, "trend": 13.061, "fair_value": 15.82218, "relative_strength": 3.7362, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.06389, "energy": 31.91186, "activity_lines": [ 13.840667, 13.825636, 13.605, 13.332731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.34, "volume": 183045, "typical_volume": 404588.4, "trend": 13.09, "fair_value": 15.789872, "relative_strength": 2.932894, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.108988, "energy": 25.739009, "activity_lines": [ 13.675333, 13.740182, 13.616476, 13.350731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.89, "volume": 985789, "typical_volume": 441515.75, "trend": 13.107, "fair_value": 15.753782, "relative_strength": -2.486499, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.777561, "energy": 12.857936, "activity_lines": [ 13.396667, 13.58, 13.577667, 13.337828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }