{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d66c1c20-b467-4d73-92e6-32fbb86b3896", "symbol": "VGL", "name": "Vista Group International Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.702, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.203, "architecture_energy": 60.372, "architecture_maturity": 30.643, "architecture_confidence": 91.037, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.94, "rotation_up": 64.05, "upward_expansion": 86.34, "deceleration": 48.94, "rotation_down": 19.52, "downward_expansion": 10.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.506, 2.444727, 2.329952, 2.206043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.62, "trend_reference": 2.0815, "distance_from_trend": 0.258708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.482532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055374, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.995421, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.447514, "excess_performance": 0.41924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.258708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055374, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181136, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059954, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.447514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.252755, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4943990, "relative_activity": 5.022713, "balance": 6.252755, "dry_up": 2.086241, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084116, "annualized_volatility": 0.497359, "from_high_reference": -0.253561, "from_low_reference": 0.679487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.0815, "fair_value_reference": 2.482532, "structural_low": 1.56, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.019732, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.003805, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.23839, "worst_return": -0.150538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.102839, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.090277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.27234, "worst_return": -0.182857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004444, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017643, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.616216, "worst_return": -0.2375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.22467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091549, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011561, "active": false }, { 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1573890, "typical_volume": 1103730.05, "trend": 2.086167, "fair_value": 2.466186, "relative_strength": -6.700321, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.941119, "energy": 46.743183, "activity_lines": [ 2.362667, 2.336364, 2.175476, 2.099376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.45, "volume": 662248, "typical_volume": 800649.5, "trend": 2.085167, "fair_value": 2.46984, "relative_strength": -2.788689, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.93648, "energy": 49.128773, "activity_lines": [ 2.399333, 2.364, 2.213762, 2.122849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.44, "volume": 1022096, "typical_volume": 739205.35, "trend": 2.079833, "fair_value": 2.473558, "relative_strength": -2.764426, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.672011, "energy": 44.78787, "activity_lines": [ 2.416667, 2.383818, 2.248429, 2.145742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.47, "volume": 1585838, "typical_volume": 799873.6, "trend": 2.0755, "fair_value": 2.477468, "relative_strength": -0.054138, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.966963, "energy": 46.361964, "activity_lines": [ 2.436, 2.402364, 2.283286, 2.170914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.62, "volume": 4943990, "typical_volume": 984326.6, "trend": 2.0815, "fair_value": 2.482532, "relative_strength": 5.995421, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.202978, "energy": 60.371938, "activity_lines": [ 2.506, 2.444727, 2.329952, 2.206043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }