{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d66c5eed-cf11-4506-a381-8ef9e0ba5600",
    "symbol": "P500H",
    "name": "Amundi PEA S&P 500 Screened UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged Acc",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.842,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 84.424,
    "architecture_energy": 57.199,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.814,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.847,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.88,
        "rotation_up": 51.46,
        "upward_expansion": 79.44,
        "deceleration": 70.4,
        "rotation_down": 27.67,
        "downward_expansion": 8.44
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        47.703333,
        47.494273,
        47.064819,
        46.2118
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 49.189999,
    "trend_reference": 45.3032,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.085795,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 37.999996,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294474,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.192721,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.108083,
    "excess_performance": 0.054771,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085795,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030271,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.294474,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016181,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041927,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054155,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108083,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.310378,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 17456,
      "relative_activity": 0.443511,
      "balance": 1.310378,
      "dry_up": 1.533259,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01959,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.131903,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005861,
      "from_low_reference": 0.224454
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.3032,
      "fair_value_reference": 37.999996,
      "structural_low": 40.173,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.037019,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010588,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.069479,
        "worst_return": -0.090299,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.032421,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004997,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.071766,
        "worst_return": -0.10643,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.086166,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02867,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.142186,
        "worst_return": 0.025259,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.113787,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.104227,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.228514,
        "worst_return": -0.17848,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.078639,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037545,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.001464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.077105,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.026666,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003605,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.118235,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001266,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.070673,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.053129,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.109397,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.031914,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045484,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 31987.75,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 37593.5,
        "trend": 43.371914,
        "fair_value": 36.360913,
        "relative_strength": 6.897747,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 38496.35,
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        "relative_strength": 12.21359,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 41001.7,
        "trend": 43.8336,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 77.744472,
        "energy": 87.457665,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 40821.2,
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        "relative_strength": 9.500946,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 39191.1,
        "trend": 44.1365,
        "fair_value": 36.973163,
        "relative_strength": 7.768392,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.390089,
        "energy": 85.153198,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 40758.4,
        "trend": 44.275633,
        "fair_value": 37.088105,
        "relative_strength": 6.001714,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 5.608983,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 37001.3,
        "trend": 44.5795,
        "fair_value": 37.321682,
        "relative_strength": 4.732316,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.063473,
        "energy": 60.041963,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 10966,
        "typical_volume": 36526.35,
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        "fair_value": 37.438477,
        "relative_strength": 3.866225,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 36018.8,
        "trend": 44.835633,
        "fair_value": 37.550977,
        "relative_strength": 5.675376,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.989787,
        "energy": 59.230748,
        "activity_lines": [
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          45.574365
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 46.845001,
        "volume": 31740,
        "typical_volume": 36331.85,
        "trend": 44.9453,
        "fair_value": 37.658246,
        "relative_strength": 4.135508,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.523519,
        "energy": 50.483388,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.213667,
          47.260473,
          46.459067,
          45.704002
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 46.755001,
        "volume": 149126,
        "typical_volume": 40662.4,
        "trend": 45.0353,
        "fair_value": 37.76356,
        "relative_strength": 3.356776,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.592675,
        "energy": 42.515977,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.035001,
          47.169582,
          46.594286,
          45.820757
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 47.049999,
        "volume": 43066,
        "typical_volume": 40483.7,
        "trend": 45.143533,
        "fair_value": 37.873394,
        "relative_strength": 2.221407,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.984436,
        "energy": 34.072877,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.011,
          47.136873,
          46.739038,
          45.950738
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 49.189999,
        "volume": 17456,
        "typical_volume": 39358.65,
        "trend": 45.3032,
        "fair_value": 37.999996,
        "relative_strength": 4.192721,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.423833,
        "energy": 57.199074,
        "activity_lines": [
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          47.064819,
          46.2118
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}