{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d66d9272-be3e-4daf-b8ca-580b52252cad", "symbol": "HROW", "name": "Harrow Health Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.708, "architecture_energy": 6.852, "architecture_maturity": 18.424, "architecture_confidence": 49.259, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.84, "rotation_up": 32.91, "upward_expansion": 34.27, "deceleration": 62.88, "rotation_down": 33.28, "downward_expansion": 22.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.560667, 41.116727, 39.537857, 39.383441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.44, "trend_reference": 40.278333, "distance_from_trend": 0.004014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.134167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341998, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.102471, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145393, "excess_performance": -0.332847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029009, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002099, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145393, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.948009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1727125, "relative_activity": 0.511923, "balance": 0.948009, "dry_up": 0.728031, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132362, "annualized_volatility": 0.819987, "from_high_reference": -0.262716, "from_low_reference": 0.416954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.278333, "fair_value_reference": 30.134167, "structural_low": 28.5401, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.072998, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.02316, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.729287, "worst_return": -0.132465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.197403, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.15249, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.690476, "worst_return": -0.242469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.54613, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.363127, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.468493, "worst_return": -0.362079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.622261, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.457991, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.527778, "worst_return": -0.145907, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075937, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.233429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.245962, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.34, "volume": 2426185, "typical_volume": 2552686.05, "trend": 19.799333, "fair_value": 10.683301, "relative_strength": -12.575785, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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-0.459188, "energy": 13.648416, "activity_lines": [ 39.756, 37.768545, 37.642571, 39.202624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 42.74, "volume": 2675793, "typical_volume": 3938703.3, "trend": 41.393333, "fair_value": 29.443782, "relative_strength": -8.272824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.003888, "energy": 23.974005, "activity_lines": [ 41.270667, 38.739091, 38.007381, 39.283032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.48, "volume": 3237450, "typical_volume": 4006972.35, "trend": 41.240667, "fair_value": 29.599872, "relative_strength": -10.328959, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.613987, "energy": 31.175128, "activity_lines": [ 42.196667, 39.607091, 38.371, 39.35314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.65, "volume": 2861763, "typical_volume": 4001560.9, "trend": 41.249, "fair_value": 29.759423, "relative_strength": 2.65966, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.402833, "energy": 54.229344, "activity_lines": [ 43.893333, 41.204545, 39.177095, 39.702129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.45, "volume": 3234277, "typical_volume": 3646528.1, "trend": 40.861, "fair_value": 29.868397, "relative_strength": -13.811533, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.148752, "energy": 25.921835, "activity_lines": [ 42.256, 41.158, 39.238095, 39.521548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.77, "volume": 2001750, "typical_volume": 3448953.8, "trend": 40.489667, "fair_value": 29.983462, "relative_strength": -13.563086, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.982385, "energy": 8.234341, "activity_lines": [ 41.02, 41.038, 39.319571, 39.386645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.44, "volume": 1727125, "typical_volume": 3373796.7, "trend": 40.278333, "fair_value": 30.134167, "relative_strength": -14.102471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.707954, "energy": 6.852366, "activity_lines": [ 40.560667, 41.116727, 39.537857, 39.383441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }