{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d66e310b-a8a6-46be-aec5-a25307370633", "symbol": "BCM", "name": "Brazilian Critical Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.449, "architecture_energy": 27.081, "architecture_maturity": 69.987, "architecture_confidence": 95.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.26, "rotation_up": 35.12, "upward_expansion": 60.29, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 26.57, "downward_expansion": 19.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0462, 0.046927, 0.043648, 0.040544 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.053, "trend_reference": 0.0367, "distance_from_trend": 0.444142, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.022407, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.365327, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 54.818415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.827586, "excess_performance": 0.763881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.444142, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.365327, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.846762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.548184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103879, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.827586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.489841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30727148, "relative_activity": 1.461826, "balance": 1.489841, "dry_up": 1.469279, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15312, "annualized_volatility": 0.879211, "from_high_reference": -0.123967, "from_low_reference": 3.416667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0367, "fair_value_reference": 0.022407, "structural_low": 0.023, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002168, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.176471, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.223204, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.563636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.098951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.736364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.790909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.908145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.790909, "worst_return": -0.790909, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246575, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.657143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.346154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.470588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.454545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.307692, "active": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 28133709, "typical_volume": 23319834.9, "trend": 0.0354, "fair_value": 0.022298, "relative_strength": 28.343076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.169045, "energy": 36.62296, "activity_lines": [ 0.0454, 0.045855, 0.041757, 0.038953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.043, "volume": 13327460, "typical_volume": 21255313.95, "trend": 0.035933, "fair_value": 0.022304, "relative_strength": 32.548621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.576502, "energy": 21.509565, "activity_lines": [ 0.044, 0.045509, 0.042248, 0.039443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.053, "volume": 30727148, "typical_volume": 21019704.6, "trend": 0.0367, "fair_value": 0.022407, "relative_strength": 54.818415, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.449144, "energy": 27.080972, "activity_lines": [ 0.0462, 0.046927, 0.043648, 0.040544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }