{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6799647-cb60-4c55-b625-d37f9fc6aa2f", "symbol": "Q01", "name": "QAF Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.147, "architecture_energy": 4.607, "architecture_maturity": 25.565, "architecture_confidence": 59.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.58, "rotation_up": 26.23, "upward_expansion": 47.25, "deceleration": 77.15, "rotation_down": 22.81, "downward_expansion": 27.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.977, 0.977182, 0.982955, 0.980474 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.97, "trend_reference": 0.973022, "distance_from_trend": -0.003106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.804966, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.620589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018221, "excess_performance": -0.136614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04132, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20502, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.977218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244700, "relative_activity": 0.604645, "balance": 0.977218, "dry_up": 0.704472, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017446, "annualized_volatility": 0.097137, "from_high_reference": -0.06663, "from_low_reference": 0.185235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.973022, "fair_value_reference": 0.804966, "structural_low": 0.904528, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.000282, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.01251, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.084746, "worst_return": -0.018405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011545, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012656, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.134832, "worst_return": -0.006136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033725, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167658, "worst_return": 0.005339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017964, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030487, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.977667, 0.980273, 0.984599, 0.978548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.98, "volume": 264000, "typical_volume": 424170.0, "trend": 0.96672, "fair_value": 0.801015, "relative_strength": -9.46617, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.835175, "energy": 10.128569, "activity_lines": [ 0.978667, 0.979545, 0.984522, 0.97965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.98, "volume": 344300, "typical_volume": 404495.0, "trend": 0.970519, "fair_value": 0.802995, "relative_strength": -9.855851, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.781189, "energy": 13.243141, "activity_lines": [ 0.979667, 0.979091, 0.984268, 0.980507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.97, "volume": 244700, "typical_volume": 404700.0, "trend": 0.973022, "fair_value": 0.804966, "relative_strength": -11.620589, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.146602, "energy": 4.607422, "activity_lines": [ 0.977, 0.977182, 0.982955, 0.980474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }