{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d679ddd5-190c-4d3e-9649-0fd429e5699b", "symbol": "BA", "name": "The Boeing Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.034, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.465, "architecture_energy": 3.326, "architecture_maturity": 36.379, "architecture_confidence": 80.072, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 78.09, "rotation_up": 19.37, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 55.98, "rotation_down": 33.44, "downward_expansion": 57.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 221.037333, 220.375818, 221.343524, 221.17329 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 234.42, "trend_reference": 224.005333, "distance_from_trend": 0.046493, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 198.960833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178222, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.943809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035428, "excess_performance": -0.161053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01666, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035428, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839093, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36739513, "relative_activity": 1.195171, "balance": 0.839093, "dry_up": 1.035277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065672, "annualized_volatility": 0.341567, "from_high_reference": -0.078356, "from_low_reference": 0.32613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 224.005333, "fair_value_reference": 198.960833, "structural_low": 187.72, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.039018, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.034398, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.137173, "worst_return": -0.176041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055094, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.06372, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.237955, "worst_return": -0.171631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095845, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.276672, "worst_return": -0.100547, 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3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.849795, "energy": 23.027386, "activity_lines": [ 219.730667, 220.342545, 220.888333, 222.008968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 209.52, "volume": 30592511, "typical_volume": 31382365.4, "trend": 224.396667, "fair_value": 199.066731, "relative_strength": -11.795176, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.684244, "energy": 34.233108, "activity_lines": [ 216.052667, 218.292909, 219.98081, 221.034301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 216.14, "volume": 39150618, "typical_volume": 31074496.95, "trend": 224.009, "fair_value": 198.969167, "relative_strength": -9.608097, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.586635, "energy": 36.405964, "activity_lines": [ 215.461333, 217.646364, 219.806571, 220.501613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 234.42, "volume": 36739513, "typical_volume": 30739969.15, "trend": 224.005333, "fair_value": 198.960833, "relative_strength": -4.943809, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.465125, "energy": 3.326217, "activity_lines": [ 221.037333, 220.375818, 221.343524, 221.17329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }