{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d67ae12b-ab16-4ae0-8145-ca5961d00237", "symbol": "ATER", "name": "Aterian Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.087, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.569, "architecture_energy": 58.575, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.028, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.93, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 30.53, "deceleration": 46.0, "rotation_down": 69.27, "downward_expansion": 50.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.604027, 0.849325, 0.953222, 0.90342 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.4934, "trend_reference": 0.835227, "distance_from_trend": -0.409262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.212937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.777038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.567052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242322, "excess_performance": -0.429775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.409262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101659, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.777038, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.495671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.153098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1138503, "relative_activity": 0.077004, "balance": 1.153098, "dry_up": 0.143107, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.538243, "annualized_volatility": 1.887254, "from_high_reference": -0.73615, "from_low_reference": 0.393392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.835227, "fair_value_reference": 2.212937, "structural_low": 0.3541, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.092517, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172269, "worst_return": 0.012766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035151, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159664, "worst_return": -0.089362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.132179, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.194876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207983, "worst_return": -0.47234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.138655, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.264069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046809, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"fair_value": 2.273961, "relative_strength": -58.413582, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.611828, "energy": 10.316908, "activity_lines": [ 0.961667, 1.081273, 1.046625, 0.954975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4101, "volume": 3938366, "typical_volume": 14741708.05, "trend": 0.84618, "fair_value": 2.243436, "relative_strength": -56.803915, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.13612, "energy": 39.523944, "activity_lines": [ 0.740967, 0.950364, 0.99555, 0.92618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4934, "volume": 1138503, "typical_volume": 14785038.7, "trend": 0.835227, "fair_value": 2.212937, "relative_strength": -49.567052, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.568887, "energy": 58.57511, "activity_lines": [ 0.604027, 0.849325, 0.953222, 0.90342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }