{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d68609bd-289a-4915-98ff-9a16aedb9b34", "symbol": "300516", "name": "Hubei Jiuzhiyang Infrared System Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.348, "architecture_energy": 70.624, "architecture_maturity": 36.914, "architecture_confidence": 87.533, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 12.31, "upward_expansion": 15.41, "deceleration": 38.96, "rotation_down": 69.81, "downward_expansion": 88.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.855333, 30.899454, 33.766593, 36.42024 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.139999, "trend_reference": 40.781534, "distance_from_trend": -0.236419, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.376218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.217076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.367222, "excess_performance": -0.374622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236419, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.367222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.684822, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27844839, "relative_activity": 1.064988, "balance": 0.684822, "dry_up": 1.152649, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164521, "annualized_volatility": 0.681658, "from_high_reference": -0.557966, "from_low_reference": 0.327932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.781534, "fair_value_reference": 27.376218, "structural_low": 23.450001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023661, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037961, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.165982, "worst_return": -0.076306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061323, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.304194, "worst_return": 0.004997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.293763, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.037639, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.544607, "worst_return": -0.161995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.41, "volume": 41729744, "typical_volume": 27623357.2, "trend": 43.842284, "fair_value": 27.260679, "relative_strength": -18.701916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.661335, "energy": 45.104229, "activity_lines": [ 34.85, 35.836101, 37.610051, 40.254513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.709999, "volume": 30040775, "typical_volume": 27236331.85, "trend": 43.458161, "fair_value": 27.270969, "relative_strength": -28.331326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.53811, "energy": 66.004294, "activity_lines": [ 32.032, 34.01309, 36.370568, 39.149205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 30380000, "typical_volume": 26029961.7, "trend": 42.568441, "fair_value": 27.285478, "relative_strength": -28.436762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.697066, "energy": 75.999535, "activity_lines": [ 29.841333, 32.448363, 35.242955, 38.068033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.549999, "volume": 32281577, "typical_volume": 25996502.7, "trend": 41.662352, "fair_value": 27.31409, "relative_strength": -24.855712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.325086, "energy": 78.405117, "activity_lines": [ 28.571333, 31.256181, 34.296054, 37.099101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.139999, "volume": 27844839, "typical_volume": 26145679.6, "trend": 40.781534, "fair_value": 27.376218, "relative_strength": -19.217076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.347786, "energy": 70.623618, "activity_lines": [ 28.855333, 30.899454, 33.766593, 36.42024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }