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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.071, "architecture_energy": 55.614, "architecture_maturity": 4.106, "architecture_confidence": 91.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.69, "rotation_up": 12.71, "upward_expansion": 14.45, "deceleration": 35.05, "rotation_down": 64.52, "downward_expansion": 85.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.666667, 86.086107, 87.156452, 87.55552 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 85.5, "trend_reference": 87.811541, "distance_from_trend": -0.026324, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.871765, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.503382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.193697, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05, "excess_performance": -0.224247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.503382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100453, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.389659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149961, "relative_activity": 0.845571, "balance": 0.389659, "dry_up": 0.823469, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05143, "annualized_volatility": 0.284377, "from_high_reference": -0.130214, "from_low_reference": 0.325581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.811541, "fair_value_reference": 56.871765, "structural_low": 80.0, 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52.777362, "energy": 23.263727, "activity_lines": [ 89.515725, 89.257672, 88.698028, 88.350641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 86.300003, "volume": 170741, "typical_volume": 195981.35, "trend": 87.184874, "fair_value": 55.409408, "relative_strength": -15.141024, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.985468, "energy": 8.608413, "activity_lines": [ 88.535804, 88.78164, 88.453999, 88.310757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 85.5, "volume": 170801, "typical_volume": 194865.8, "trend": 87.424874, "fair_value": 55.781306, "relative_strength": -13.951282, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.107755, "energy": 5.880442, "activity_lines": [ 87.473334, 88.175126, 88.169493, 88.202055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.199997, "volume": 138415, "typical_volume": 188994.7, "trend": 87.541541, "fair_value": 56.136823, "relative_strength": -16.991506, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.232889, "energy": 34.416716, "activity_lines": [ 85.933333, 87.227524, 87.71213, 87.929482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.900002, "volume": 124988, "typical_volume": 186018.0, "trend": 87.654874, "fair_value": 56.496826, "relative_strength": -15.809633, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.319443, "energy": 44.48597, "activity_lines": [ 84.86, 86.490866, 87.351434, 87.694545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.5, "volume": 149961, "typical_volume": 177348.75, "trend": 87.811541, "fair_value": 56.871765, "relative_strength": -16.193697, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.071004, "energy": 55.614437, "activity_lines": [ 84.666667, 86.086107, 87.156452, 87.55552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }