{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d68aefb2-c5fb-481f-a417-a391a8134486", "symbol": "UTG", "name": "Unite Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.696, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.134, "architecture_energy": 37.592, "architecture_maturity": 14.722, "architecture_confidence": 42.19, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.64, "rotation_up": 53.12, "upward_expansion": 50.46, "deceleration": 34.94, "rotation_down": 23.19, "downward_expansion": 13.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 538.2, 532.9, 518.121325, 511.471053 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 532.5, "trend_reference": 514.980018, "distance_from_trend": 0.034021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 787.721616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.430571, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.081422, "excess_performance": -0.132658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034021, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12775846, "relative_activity": 1.15586, "balance": 0.808583, "dry_up": 0.83482, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053478, "annualized_volatility": 0.277323, "from_high_reference": -0.290451, "from_low_reference": 0.204828 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 514.980018, "fair_value_reference": 787.721616, "structural_low": 441.971681, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023342, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.017229, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.024762, "worst_return": -0.060811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.08136, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012331, "worst_return": -0.091016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.070257, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054246, "worst_return": -0.261639, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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500.579405, 505.243559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 537.5, "volume": 5564889, "typical_volume": 13241084.5, "trend": 516.50124, "fair_value": 795.652597, "relative_strength": -12.116362, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.307732, "energy": 29.484788, "activity_lines": [ 526.766667, 521.590909, 504.985648, 506.576346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 555.0, "volume": 7716979, "typical_volume": 12474262.25, "trend": 516.760664, "fair_value": 793.056001, "relative_strength": -9.376186, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.448038, "energy": 39.056078, "activity_lines": [ 537.133333, 528.9, 510.897795, 509.060137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 538.0, "volume": 10851730, "typical_volume": 11947630.95, "trend": 516.37013, "fair_value": 790.340829, "relative_strength": -12.255735, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.695794, "energy": 33.511808, "activity_lines": [ 538.966667, 531.772727, 514.93014, 510.430416 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 532.5, "volume": 12775846, "typical_volume": 11053113.1, "trend": 514.980018, "fair_value": 787.721616, "relative_strength": -12.430571, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.13431, "energy": 37.591682, "activity_lines": [ 538.2, 532.9, 518.121325, 511.471053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }