{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d68dada9-99fd-46ea-92a9-05f8ed9a29b9", "symbol": "BEKB", "name": "NV Bekaert SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.921, "architecture_energy": 19.308, "architecture_maturity": 8.231, "architecture_confidence": 63.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.69, "rotation_up": 22.22, "upward_expansion": 28.01, "deceleration": 56.11, "rotation_down": 52.28, "downward_expansion": 30.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.910001, 40.29182, 40.543556, 40.356478 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.400002, "trend_reference": 40.124186, "distance_from_trend": -0.042971, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.037413, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.189563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073431, "excess_performance": -0.247678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258, "relative_activity": 5.00485, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.251212, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038423, "annualized_volatility": 0.206451, "from_high_reference": -0.103387, "from_low_reference": 0.213064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.124186, "fair_value_reference": 36.037413, "structural_low": 36.191216, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047019, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.019823, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.108557, "worst_return": -0.139915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055418, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.019469, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.118814, "worst_return": -0.18057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064788, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169429, "worst_return": -0.145195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.046752, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357038, "worst_return": -0.263533, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.159861, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044384, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094494, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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41.261432, 40.550018, 40.090765 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 39.650002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.95, "trend": 39.292804, "fair_value": 35.924934, "relative_strength": -14.419402, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.349496, "energy": 22.848204, "activity_lines": [ 40.936668, 41.022739, 40.483961, 40.123302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.95, "trend": 39.457421, "fair_value": 35.948066, "relative_strength": -13.927032, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.610623, "energy": 19.017085, "activity_lines": [ 40.776668, 40.985858, 40.526443, 40.214088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.150002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.95, "trend": 39.606887, "fair_value": 35.961213, "relative_strength": -13.632162, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.129369, "energy": 17.152528, "activity_lines": [ 40.500002, 40.835579, 40.520311, 40.258771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.950001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.95, "trend": 39.790978, "fair_value": 35.984277, "relative_strength": -9.88902, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.45267, "energy": 20.27841, "activity_lines": [ 40.576668, 40.829092, 40.599483, 40.345424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51.8, "trend": 39.997336, "fair_value": 36.019194, "relative_strength": -8.648276, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.846471, "energy": 29.19227, "activity_lines": [ 41.020001, 41.017274, 40.780776, 40.487941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.650002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 38.65, "trend": 40.090348, "fair_value": 36.034147, "relative_strength": -13.401466, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.852892, "energy": 7.489737, "activity_lines": [ 40.673335, 40.752729, 40.725605, 40.465533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.400002, "volume": 258, "typical_volume": 51.55, "trend": 40.124186, "fair_value": 36.037413, "relative_strength": -18.189563, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.921467, "energy": 19.308319, "activity_lines": [ 39.910001, 40.29182, 40.543556, 40.356478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }